Safety cars almost a guarantee in Baku, 40% chance of red flags
General
- GPblog.com
With street circuits, the chance of a safety car or red flag is always a bit more prevalent than with a usual circuit. The Baku City Circuit is perhaps the best example of this, but how often have we actually seen a safety car or red flag in the Azerbaijani capital?
Trouble-free start in Baku
Formula One has traveled to Azerbaijan five times in the past six years. Since 2016, only the 2020 race did not take place due to the coronavirus. The races are generally well received. There is plenty of room to overtake at the end of the 2.2-kilometer (almost) straight. There are also overtaking opportunities in Turns Two and Three.
This while the wall in Baku is never far away. It is therefore actually amazing to mention that during the first edition in 2016, which was then run as a European Grand Prix, not a single safety car was needed. Nico Rosberg won from and the race was actually a dull affair.
New name, more safety cars
In 2017, the race returned as the Azerbaijan Grand Prix and that name change immediately brought with it the full madness. That year's edition had three different safety car periods as well as a red flag to clear debris from the track after multiple incidents. Thirteen of the twenty drivers who started saw the finish flag that year.
A year later, the Mercedes AMG safety car was outside the pits within the first lap to accommodate the entire field. Esteban Ocon and Sergey Sirotkin were unable to continue after the first few corners following separate incidents. The 2018 race is still on the minds of many Red Bull Racing fans, as that race was a pivot between Max Verstappen and Daniel Ricciardo. The Australian drove for the last time with the Austrian team that year.
This crossover went well until lap 40, when the teammates brought out a second safety car. You could almost say that a third safety car period was needed, but because Romain Grosjean parked his car in the wall during the safety car, the second period was extended a bit.
A quieter year and clapping Pirelli's
In 2019, it was Daniil Kvyat and Daniel Ricciardo who almost caused the only safety car period. Ricciardo drove his Renault backwards into the Russian's Toro Rosso. However, both drivers were able to continue their way towards the pits. We did see a brief virual safety car due to Pierre Gasly's stranded car.
Then on to the last driven edition, that of 2021. This one had two safety car periods due to two violent crashes. Lance Stroll, during a long stint on the hard tyre, saw his Pirelli left rear tyre suddenly pop. He ended up in the wall and the safety car was needed to clear the Aston Martin. Verstappen was long on his way to winning in Azerbaijan, but on lap 46 he had exactly the same problem as his Canadian rival and also ended his race in the wall. The safety car period was eventually even changed to a red flag. Of course, only five races have been run, but two red flag situations out of five races remains a high number.
What do the bookies say?
The odds of a safety car or red flag in Baku are very high through the last four editions. On average, the bookies will return 4.5 times your stake if you bet on a race without a safety car. If you bet on a race with a safety car, you will only get 1.16 times your stake back.
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