Analysis | Verstappen recovers a poor day with stronger long run pace

Qualifying simulations

 

 

 

 

 

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Even on the ultimate lap time, Verstappen and Perez are losing a lot of time. It's clear that Verstappen is losing the majority of the time in the first and third sectors. He's losing between three and four-tenths in both. The first sector contains a slower speed at turn three, and the final sector contains the slower speed chicane at turns 11 and 12. Interestingly, banking is also present in both sectors. 

Medium speed cornering is a crucial aspect of the Zandvoort circuit and it hasn't been Red Bull's strength all season. In fact, as the evidence above supports, Ferrari have been far stronger in the medium-speed corners for the entire season. In comparison, Red Bull have been finding their lap time down the long straights. With the corners being slower, more time is usually spent in these sections and therefore on single-lap pace Ferrari have often ruled supreme. When it comes to race day, Red Bull have the advantage of making use of the powerful DRS zones, slipstreams and a car that manages its tyre better. 

This is backed up and supported by the statistics. Ferrari have scored twice as many pole positions as their rivals Red Bull Racing, whereas that advantage is flipped on Sundays. Red Bull have won ten races, to Ferrari’s four. But overtaking is very challenging at Zandvoort. Even in the DRS zones, it's difficult to make an overtake. The home straight DRS zone is the best chance. Overnight, the Red Bull mechanics must work on improving their cornering speeds because a catch-up drive in the Netherlands will be harder. Nothing that Verstappen can't achieve though. 

Long runs

Formula 1 had some difficulties with the live timing screens so there might be some discrepancy with the long run. It's also important to note that there was a red flag period in the closing stages of FP2 so some long runs got broken up. Though this data suggests that Verstappen and Red Bull are actually much closer to Ferrari under the high fuel. 

Manic rush in Qualifying

One thing we did learn for definite after Friday practice was that traffic is going to be manic in qualifying. Lewis Hamilton had to visit the stewards for blocking, as did a couple of others drivers following the first free practice session. Drivers radioed their complaints during the session as well. 

Zandvoort circuit is relatively short and plays host to a lot of corners. This causes backlogs as drivers search for gaps that give them the best possible chance of getting their quickest possible lap time. Qualifying is extra important this weekend. This makes single-lap pace all the more important. All of the attention will be focused on Saturday's qualifying session. If one of the top drivers from either Red Bull, Ferrari or even Mercedes gets caught up in this traffic, they could easily drop out early in qualifying which will have big implications on the race. 

Should the Grand Prix remain incident free, it could be a parade similar to last season. The top five finished in the same order they started in 12 months ago. Though we will get some stunning laps with the banked corners. And we will really see how much impact the new rules and regulations had on overtaking. This made positive improvements to the Hungarian Grand Prix before the summer break and that's tipped to be the case this year in Zandvoort.