Analysis | Ferrari and Mercedes prove better than Aston Martin on this front

Red Bull is lord and master

After three Grands Prix, the 2023 F1 season is Red Bull Racing leading by far in the constructors' championship. With three wins, two one-twos and twice the point for fastest lap, Red Bull could hardly have started better. On Saturday too, it dominated during qualifying and outclassed the competition.

So far, Aston Martin seemed closest to Red Bull in the race, but in qualifying it is very close. Indeed, if we analyse the data from the first three Grands Prix, Ferrari and Mercedes are closer to Red Bull than Aston Martin on Saturday. Yet it is Aston Martin that holds the second spot among constructors after three races with 65.

For analysis, the lap time of the team's fastest driver that weekend was compared with the fastest time of Max Verstappen (Bahrain and Australia) or Sergio Perez (Saudi Arabia). In those three qualifying sessions, Aston Martin is not the fastest car after Red Bull on a single lap on any occasion. Ferrari was so in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, Mercedes was so in Australia.

Analysis of the first Grands Prix

We also see this reflected in the average. In the first three qualifying sessions, the fastest Ferrari loses 0.328s on average to the fastest Red Bull. Mercedes follows on 0.487s, while the fastest Aston Martin driver loses half a second on average. Mercedes' performance is particularly striking. The team lost 0.632s in Bahrain, 0.592s in Saudi Arabia and just 0.236s in Australia. So the German racing stable is catching up.

The proportions on Saturday do not quite correspond to the results on Sunday. Ferrari already saw Charles Leclerc retire twice and Carlos Sainz finished outside the points in Australia due to a penalty. Fourth place among constructors does not show the true picture. Although Ferrari seems less competitive in the race, over one lap it is still Red Bull's closest rival.

However, the combination of a fast lap, good race pace and better reliability make Mercedes and Aston Martin currently the teams closest to Red Bull in points. Behind them, there is a big gap. Indeed, Alpine is losing almost a second per qualifying session to the fastest RB19. A surprising name behind it is Haas, which also lost just under a second per qualifying session.

Alpine and Haas, however, have to leave the fifth spot in the standings to McLaren. That is more luck than wisdom though, as in qualifying McLaren loses 1.346s to the fastest Red Bull. So it is far from being able to compete with Alpine and Haas in qualifying, but it was lucky in Australia. The Alpines crashed out of the race together, allowing Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri to pick up a lot of points.

Still, seventh place in this list is better than one would have expected from McLaren. Indeed, the season started disastrously, but in Saudi Arabia and Australia, the Woking-based team was already much more competitive than it had been in the first race.

AlphaTauri better than expected

The rearguard in the championship is also the rearguard in this list. Williams, AlphaTauri and Alfa Romeo close the row, but are not far behind McLaren. Even the Haas and Alpine drivers are still within half a second on Saturday. Not surprisingly, all teams have already been able to take at least one point.

Alfa Romeo is the surprise in this list. After Valtteri Bottas' P8 in Bahrain, the Swiss team seemed to have reconnected with Alpine, but since then it has slipped far. On Saturday, the fastest Alfa Romeo is running slowest this season compared to the fastest RB19. Good races by Valtteri Bottas and Guanyu Zhou disguise a lot on Sunday, leaving the team eighth.

Indeed, over one lap, Williams and AlphaTauri are faster. Alexander Albon impressed in Australia with his appearance in Q3, but a problem in the race prevented him from scoring good points. That left Williams stuck with the only point from Bahrain for now.

Much has also been written about AlphaTauri, but on Saturday, Yuki Tsunoda showed that they are not that far off the points. The Japanese has not had luck on his side yet, but with P11, P11 and P10, he shows that the AT04 is not as bad as sometimes claimed. In the race, the team simply needs a bit more luck, as it has been with McLaren and Alfa Romeo before.