Analysis | Top speeds and why Ferrari shouldn't be overly pleased with pole

The Baku Street circuit provides an excellent example of a very mixed track. The 2.2km straight over the start/finish line is the longest in the Formula 1 calendar, making the engineers focus on getting the straight-line performance. However, that must be balanced with a very technical middle sector. It's incredibly twisty and features many slow-speed corners. 

Top speeds

Fernando Alonso experienced a tow in the first practice session, so his delta shouldn't be examined too closely. Verstappen's top speed was 8kph faster than Leclerc's top speed in qualifying. An alarming difference. Leclerc is a sitting duck once you add the benefits of a tow combined with DRS. In simple terms, this is why Ferrari shouldn't be overly pleased with pole position. 

This result became synonymous with the 2022 season. Ferrari secured most of the pole positions. But when it mattered come race day, it was Red Bull picking up the race victories and, therefore, the bulk of the points. Of course, other factors will be involved on Sunday. Even so, it seems likely that we'll get a repeat of the 2022 season. To highlight this point further, Leclerc has secured the last three pole positions in Baku and is still without a win at the venue. 

It's a confidence booster. Ferrari have had a horrible week. Laurent Mekies confirmed his departure, and there have been rumours of Charles Leclerc exploring some options at Mercedes. They needed this result mentally, but the balloon will soon burst in all likelihood.

How did Ferrari beat Red Bull?

It wasn't an overly outlandish claim to suggest that Red Bull would walk away with every pole position and race win in the 2023 Formula 1 season. However, that chance has now disappeared, at least with qualifying. With such a straight-line speed advantage, seeing them on top might seem a bit of a surprise. However, Leclerc's performance through the middle sector becomes more important on a single lap because more time is spent in the slower areas. 

After sector one, Verstappen lead by almost half a second. The traction on the Ferrari car is super impressive, and Leclerc can get on the power so much earlier. When Leclerc is already at 143kph, Verstappen is still down at 119kph. A remarkable difference. Given that Leclerc's top speed drops by 2kph from FP1 and qualifying, it's possible that a small set-up change allowed the Ferrari to improve the middle sector performance. Verstappen went the other way with the race in mind. 

Elsewhere, Lewis Hamilton was the surprising number five after George Russell failed to make it out in Q2. Hamilton already asked in free practice if there was a lower engine setting, to which he got confirmation from the team. This proved no bluff from the German racing stable, as in qualifying, Hamilton was no less than six kilometres per hour faster on the straight than in free practice. At 336 kilometres per hour on the straight, Hamilton could open the hunt for Carlos Sainz and perhaps even get close to Leclerc.

Other than Fernando Alonso's famous starts, Aston Martin does not seem to pose any real threat to the top teams in Baku. It had been known for some time, but the AMR23 simply lacked speed on the straight. Alonso still reached 336 kilometres per hour in free practice with a tow, but the difference was painfully evident in qualifying. Alonso went no faster than 326 kilometres per hour. Almost twenty kilometres per hour slower than the Red Bulls, and the other top teams are also much faster. For Lance Stroll, the problems were even worse due to his faulty DRS.

Alonso will therefore have to look behind earlier. Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri's McLaren also did not have a speedster on the straight (327 kilometres per hour), but Yuki Tsunoda has a fast car at his disposal. The Japanese driver went to a top speed of 335 kilometres per hour in his Q3 run. As such, the AlphaTauri driver is an outsider for many points in Baku, which makes Nyck de Vries' failure all the sourer.