Were Sergio Perez's Championship chances ever real in 2023?

The Mexican is undoubtedly a great driver. His driving at last year's Singapore Grand Prix was masterful from start to finish. Under pressure throughout the race from a Leclerc thirsty for the particular sweetness that comes with the taste of champagne at the top of the podium, Pérez was able to keep his composure and win a very tricky race.

However, you must have more than a masterful race to mount a real challenge for the championship. To claim a world title requires driving at that level in every race. Something extra sets exceptional drivers apart from the rest, allowing them to race at the limit, session after session, and deliver performances that stick in the collective minds of fans and in the annals of history.

Perez drives at an excellent level. He has managed to do a job that drivers like Gasly and Albon never could. However, the stopwatch doesn't lie, and in this case, it tells a story that even Verstappen himself seems to know after declaring that he wasn't worried about the gap to the Mexican in the championship. Perez simply doesn't have that extra level. And this is particularly obvious when the Dutchman, a superlative driver, is the benchmark against which the Mexican is measured every race weekend.

Pace makes the difference

In qualifying pace, it is quite clear who is the superior at Red Bull. On Saturday afternoons, the Dutchman boasts a significant average gap in qualifying sessions compared to his teammate*.

Average Delta in qualifying:

-Season 2021: 0.433

-Season 2022: 0.309

-Season 2023: 0.272

*To make a fair analysis, only the sessions in which both drivers participated in Q3 were counted. For example, in 2023, Saudi Arabia (Verstappen issue), Australia (Perez crash), Miami (No Q3 time for Verstappen) and Moanco (Perez crash) were not counted. 

These differences speak of a significant gap between the two. Right now, Red Bull have little to worry about because they have a very good car, which in Verstappen's hands becomes something of an inevitability. The car and he are so in tune.

For Pérez, the situation is different. The Mexican is in his third year at Red Bull, he feels and looks comfortable in the RB19, and he himself has made statements implying that the Austrian team did not design a car with accentuated oversteer, as in the previous two years, but that this time it is less pronounced in the behaviour of the car. However, Perez has already made three mistakes that have taken their toll on the championship, in instances that, if his title aspirations were real, should not have happened.

And the races tell a similar story...

The two-time Dutch champion is also relentless when the lights go out. His Grand Prix racing ability is probably his strongest point. The average Grand Prix finishing positions* are again in favour of the two-time World Champion.

Average Grand Prix finishing positions:

-Season 2021: Max Verstappen (1.8) 2nd place. Sergio Pérez (6.6) 7th.

-Season 2022: Max Verstappen (2) 2nd place. Sergio Pérez (3.3) 3rd.

-Season 2023: Max Verstappen (1.2) 1st place. Sergio Pérez (4.4) 4th.

*No retirements are counted.

In which areas is Verstappen superior? At the moment, no one manages his tyres like him. Monaco 2023 is the most recent example of this. He has the ability to go for the races like he did in Miami. He has the maturity to accept when he can't win a Grand Prix and settle for 2nd place, like in Azerbaijan. But, above all, the relentless and fast consistency. The Dutchman is precise and tireless. The way he closed the gap to Perez in Miami on older tyres suggests Verstappen is in a form that should prove quite difficult, if not impossible, for the Mexican to beat.

What about the title?

Sergio Pérez is a great driver, just as Valtteri Bottas, Johnny Herbert or Gerhard Berger were in their day. Otherwise, they would never have sat in championship cars. However, Max Verstappen, Lewis Hamilton, Michael Schumacher and Ayrton Senna have something their peers do not. Suppose you break down the information and context. In that case, you will find factors such as speed, differences in the levels of sensitivity with which they feel the car, race management skills, overall strategic thinking, tyre management, coolness, precision, steely commitment, a work ethic that borders on the obsessive, a constant search for new limits, and so on. When these factors are accounted for, they translate into tenths of a second, which are poles, victories and titles in Formula One.

After two weekends in a row of blunders, the Mexican would do well to look back. In doing so, he would find cars that are being rapidly improved, being driven by drivers who are unforgiving of mistakes, such as Lewis Hamilton, and who are no strangers to placing cars higher than they should be, such as Fernando Alonso.

Last year's inconsistency took its toll on Perez. While Max dominated in the RB18, the Mexican could not prevent Charles Leclerc, in a tricky and fallible SF-75, with multiple strategic errors by the Ferrari team, from snatching second place in the World Drivers' Championship. The message is clear from Red Bull's side: Pérez is staying, but to minimise mistakes, he must focus on himself, not on beating Verstappen. On the other hand, it is hoped that the Mexican can secure a 1-2 in the championship for the Austrian team. Perez's real championship this season appears to be only for second place.