F1 Data Analysis | This is how Verstappen beat McLaren in Hungary

Where did Verstappen make the gap during Hungarian Grand Prix?

After a good start, Verstappen took lead from Hamilton. He pushed the Brit wide, even allowing Oscar Piastri to get second place, and Lando Norris also managed to pass Hamilton in turn two. So instead of a duel between Hamilton and Verstappen, it should've been Verstappen v McLaren.

However, it never became a battle. Piastri stayed close in the early stages of the first stint, but slowly Verstappen moved further and further away, bringing the gap to around eight seconds by the first round of pitstops. So all that was left for Verstappen to do was copy the strategy of the men behind him.

Which is what Verstappen did. The Dutchman was the last of the top four drivers to pit for new hard tyres and the last to go to the mediums later in the race. This kept the two-time world champion in the lead. Only Sergio Perez drove a different strategy. He started from P9 on the hard tyre and finished with two stints on the medium tyre to overtake Piastri and Hamilton. Norris did hold off Perez, though.

Looking at the entire race of Verstappen and Norris, you can immediately see where Verstappen made the difference with his RB19. Whereas every stint of Norris rises at the end due to wear and tear, Verstappen is like a metronome. His pace remains almost the same, as you can see from the degradation data (D).

This statistic uses a 'base pace' (P) to calculate degradation. This is the average of the first three laps, then for each lap, it looks at how much time a driver loses during his stint. So in Verstappen's first stint, the base pace is 1.24.923, and the degradation over that stint is 0.0s per lap. Verstappen is a metronome. In the second stint, Verstappen loses a total of 0.02s per lap; in the final stint, he gains 0.02s per lap. This happens because the fuel tank runs low.

Putting this alongside Norris' figures, it becomes clear why the McLarens cannot keep up with Verstappen. Norris is still stuck behind his teammate in the first stint, losing 0.03s per lap due to wear and tear. In the second stint, when Norris is driving in free air, this is a whopping 0.06s. This is a stint where Verstappen gained ground. Given that Verstappen's base pace is also much lower, the ever-widening gap on the hard tyre can be logically explained.

Why did McLaren bring in Norris first?

McLaren made one of the most eye-opening strategic moves of this race weekend. Piastri was driving in second place ahead of his teammate but suddenly saw Norris ahead after the first round of pit stops. An annoying situation for the rookie, but in hindsight not even a crazy decision by the Woking-based team.

The McLarens drove their race mainly against Hamilton and thus had to react to the Mercedes garage. At the first round of pit stops, Hamilton dived in first. With a new hard tyre, Mercedes had hopes that Hamilton could do an undercut on one or both McLarens and to this, McLaren had to react.

While the team's leading driver is normally favoured in terms of strategy, it makes sense that McLaren brought in Norris first. After all, that is who Hamilton was closest to before his pit stop. Norris was, therefore, more likely to be overtaken than Piastri. McLaren brought Piastri in a lap later, and they managed to come out in front of Hamilton with both drivers. The only problem: Norris is now in front.

Norris consistently drove faster than his teammate in the three laps before the pit stop. Not much, but enough to narrow the gap. Norris' in-lap, too, was faster than his teammates. However, Norris made the difference in the out-lap on the new hard tyres. That one is so much faster than Piastri's in-lap that he ends up ahead of his teammate on the track.

Listening to the team radios, both drivers are well-informed. Norris is told that Hamilton is going into the pits and has to give 100% pace. He does so with his in- and out-lap. Piastri hears at the start of his lap that he is going into the pits. The update on his pursuers (that they have already been to the pits) is omitted, but normally a driver in that situation knows he has to give full throttle.

Of course, it is a shock for Piastri when he enters the track behind his teammate, but given the remainder of the race, McLaren's strategy worked out very well. Indeed, if you juxtapose the pace of the two in the rest of the race, Norris is a lot better. Norris is already running away on the hard tyre, and in the final stint on the medium tyre, the difference is even greater.

Oscar Piastri blamed his inferior pace on tyre wear that he just could not control. Team boss Andrea Stella spoke up for his rookie driver. He revealed after the race that Piastri had suffered damage to his floor, which made the pace in the second part of the race a bit disappointing. Given that pace, it is a good thing Norris was in front of Piastri. Norris could stay ahead of Perez and Hamilton, but whether Piastri would have done the same remains to be seen.

Could Hamilton have been on the podium in Hungary?

Then a final notable detail: McLaren beat Mercedes in the race. Yet, based on the data, McLaren are not much better than Mercedes. Hamilton still drove to pole position on Saturday and is not far off Norris in race pace either. Indeed, if Hamilton did manage to hold off Norris on the first lap, it remains to be seen whether Norris finishes ahead of Hamilton.

In the first stint, though, Norris was stronger. The young Brit was the only one in the top-ten driving on a new set of medium tyres and clearly had an advantage. Indeed, Norris increased his lead over the Mercedes driver in the last two laps before Hamilton's pit stop. Partly because of this, Hamilton did not make an undercut work.

The second reason is the pace Norris could drive on the hard tyre at the beginning of his stint. The base pace in the first three laps puts Norris at 1.23.661, compared to the 1.25.187 Hamilton managed to drive. That is where Norris makes the difference, but the McLaren struggles with its tyre management over the entire stint. Indeed, whereas Hamilton loses 0.01s per lap due to wear, for Norris, it is a whopping 0.06s. As a result, Hamilton did well in that stint, and Mercedes chose to extend it.

As Hamilton goes in later for his final set of mediums, the pace is logically faster. Yet Hamilton does not gain much here. Whereas the difference on the hard tyre is huge, Hamilton has 0.01s wear per lap and Norris 0.03s. Since the base pace of both differs by less than a tenth, Hamilton falls short of really attacking Norris.

Hamilton probably left it to himself on the first lap. The McLaren is faster at the start of the stint, but overtaking on the Hungaroring is not easy on the same tyre compound. There would have been the risk of an undercut, though. Indeed, the McLaren was capable of a great out-lap, something Hamilton's W14 could not do.