F1 Data Analysis | Fight behind Verstappen to be savoured at Zandvoort

Why Verstappen is the favourite at Zandvoort

Source: FIA

Due to the drying conditions, Saturday's qualifying was a real test for teams and drivers. Verstappen managed to outsmart the competition over one lap for the ninth time this season.

Verstappen normally only has to contend with the competition at the start. That's where Norris and Russell have the biggest chance to strike for the lead. Otherwise, they are unlikely to see Verstappen again. Verstappen drove a very strong long run on the soft tyre on Friday. Verstappen drove a strong stint, which included 1.15.8 three times and a slowest lap of 1.16.6. The degradation on the Zandvoort circuit was not too bad.

Who are Verstappen's biggest rivals?

If we compare the pace of his closest rivals, it is noticeable that they are very close. Verstappen is the only one consistently driving between 1.15 and 1.16 low, whereas Norris, Russell and Alonso are more in the middle with 1.16s.

Norris, like Verstappen, drove his long run on the soft tyre and did not match the Dutchman's fastest time. Norris' difference is bigger at almost a second. Whereas Norris starts with a 1.16.1 and drives several low 1.16s, he finishes his stint with 1.17.1 and 1.16.7. So, a difference of around a second.

Like Norris, George Russell also drove a long run on the soft tyre. The two Brits will be evenly matched on Sunday. Russell drove a slightly faster fastest lap with 1.15.9, but on the other hand, fell back quicker into high 1.16s. At McLaren, however, they are convinced the competition is less affected by tyre wear.

Then, the surprise in qualifying: Alexander Albon. Can he keep up with the top three in the race? Probably not. Albon drove a long run on the medium tyre and is nowhere near the top three regarding both times and degradation. That might also be asking a bit too much. Albon runs a fastest time of 1.16.3, quickly shooting up to the high 1.16s and even further into the 1.17s. Albon's top speed could still be a weapon, but more on that later.

Last in line is Fernando Alonso. Who drove a long run on the hard tyre and ran surprisingly good times on it. Nothing seemed wrong with the Aston Martin's updates. The Spaniard drove a 1.16.3 as the fastest time, dropping no further than a 1.16.9. Tyre degradation at Aston Martin has been noticeable all year and could be a big weapon at Zandvoort.

Top speed a weapon of Red Bull Racing

This compares the pace of the leading contenders. The Ferraris are nowhere to be seen this weekend, and both Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc won't take much confidence from Friday into the race. Behind them, though, are Sergio Perez and Oscar Piastri who will be looking ahead given their teammate's pace. With a top speed of 326 km/h in qualifying, that should certainly be achievable for Perez.

That top speed from Red Bull Racing will again be a weapon for the team to attack and defend at Zandvoort. Verstappen, who touched 327 km/h in his qualifying run at the Speed Trap, thus has a big advantage over Norris and Russell. Norris got no further than 319.7, and Russell reached 318 km/h.

Norris and Russell are close in everything, so overtaking on track will be very difficult. McLaren and Mercedes need to make the difference in that duel, mainly in the strategic choices to drag out a podium finish. A podium for this duo is plausible, with Albon as a buffer behind the two Brits.

The Albon train

Indeed, Albon does not have the pace of the men ahead of him on the grid, but he does have the top speed (321 km/h) to keep the other competitors behind him. Fernando Alonso achieved a slightly higher top speed in qualifying than Albon (322), but is that enough to pass on the tight Circuit Zandvoort? Probably not.

Perez and Piastri are also saddled with the same problem. Perez still has the advantage of a superior car and top speed, but overtaking at Zandvoort remains difficult. The Mexican has to hope for a strategic masterstroke from Red Bull to still get on the podium here.

Given the weather forecast, things could also just go the other way. Rain has been in the air on and around the circuit all weekend, and it is also forecast before the Grand Prix. If it is already dry, the weather could turn at any time. Then it's about who handles that best and how fast the setup is in the rain. In the third free practice, Norris (10th), in particular, seemed to have more trouble with that than his rivals. Verstappen topped that session, with Russell in second and Perez in P3.

In that respect, the session at Circuit Zandvoort could go either way. If it stays dry, the battle for the podium will be decided in the pit lane, and Russell and Norris seem favourites for a podium spot alongside Verstappen. If rain falls before or during the race, then as usual, it could go either way, and it will come down to a driver's composure under pressure, the right decisions from a team and often a bit of luck/bad luck.

Long run pace Dutch Grand Prix