Verstappen needs to do something special to beat Sainz in Italy

Where Sainz makes the difference at Monza

In the end, Verstappen was only 0.013s short of pole at the Monza circuit. Sainz only just managed to beat the Dutchman to secure his fourth pole in his F1 career. Charles Leclerc was also not far off the pole. He missed out by 0.067s. Sergio Perez, Verstappen's teammate, did not come close. The Mexican will start Sunday's race from P5 after coming almost four-tenths short of pole.

Perez's performance also shows how good Verstappen's lap was. You could see it on Verstappen's face after qualifying: there was no more in it. It is understandable. After FP2 and FP3, Sainz was already the favourite, and Verstappen is still nestled between the Ferrari cars.

Where are Ferrari's fast laps suddenly coming from? Top speed. When everyone else opts for a low-downforce package, the Ferrari runs the fastest.

Top speeds in F1 qualifying

In qualifying, Sainz achieved a top speed of 350.8 km/h at the Speed Trap (at the end of start/finish). Sainz only had to beat Kevin Magnussen (also with a Ferrari engine), but he didn't make it through Q1. Anyway, it is notable that of the five fastest times in the Speed Traps, four cars are powered by a Ferrari engine. Where Haas and Alfa Romeo have little to show for it, Ferrari has enough mechanical grip to go fast through the corners.

Verstappen's RB19 does need to go much harder through the corners, as the two-time world champion 'only' achieves a top speed of 344.0km/h in the Speed Trap. Perez drives one kilometre per hour faster. So the difference with Sainz is six kilometres per hour, with Leclerc four.

Verstappen will feel the difference in top speed during the race. Overtaking on the Monza circuit is difficult because you quickly end up in a DRS train, but it becomes almost impossible when the driver in front of you also has a higher top speed. Looking at top speed, it is particularly remarkable how good George Russell's qualifying lap was. Indeed, the Briton only achieved a top speed of 338.6km/h.

Who has the best race pace in Italy?

Long run in FP3 on the soft tyre

If Verstappen doesn't have to rely on top speed, he can normally count on good race pace. With that race pace, he outclasses everyone this season, and Helmut Marko was optimistic after the second place in qualifying. Yet the times in practice are not anything to write home about.

Verstappen, Sainz, Leclerc, Russell and Perez drove a long run on the soft tyre in the third free practice around the same time (mid-session) and on a tyre that is about the same age. In that stint, Sainz impressed a lot. He drove a 1.24.3, the fastest time in his stint, staying under 1.25 for a long time.

Verstappen has a few outliers to the 1.25 mark in his stint but is nowhere near Sainz's times. This is also reflected in the pace of Perez, who cannot drive under 1.25 either. At Ferrari, it's not just Sainz who manages that, as Leclerc also completed a stint faster than the Red Bulls.

Even the man who will start the race from P4 showed a better pace in FP3. Russell already impressed in the long run during FP1 on the hard tyre. On the soft tyre, that pace is also good. Not as fast as Ferrari, but faster than Red Bull. Russell only drove a few laps to say anything about wear and tear, and the lack of top speed is a big handicap for Sunday's race.

The only thing that offers hope for Verstappen is Friday's long runs. On Friday, Verstappen made a good impression. In the first free practice, he was very strong on the hard tyre (although Sainz was not far off that either), but will take heart mainly from the times he drove on the medium tyre. No one came close to that.

Who will win the 2023 Italian Grand Prix?

The race will likely be a simple strategy of starting on the soft tyre and changing to the medium tyre halfway through the race. In practice, Sainz looked faster on the soft tyre, and Verstappen was faster on the medium.

Of course, the question is how much fuel was used and in which engine mode the long run was completed. One thing is for sure: Ferrari has a very good chance of a top result in Monza. Verstappen will not give in easily, and Ferrari will have to strategically do everything perfectly, but this is perhaps the biggest chance of victory they will get this year.