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Peter Windsor analysis qualifying GP Italy Sainz race chance

Does Sainz’s qualifying pace translate to the race? 'Looks very good'

3 September 2023 at 07:22
Last update 3 September 2023 at 08:59
  • Kada Sarkozi
  • Editor

After a long string of unimpressive races and qualifications, Ferrari's Carlos Sainz has managed to take pole position on Italian soil for the Italian GP. F1 expert Peter Windsor puts Sainz and Max Verstappen's weekends side by side and concludes that Sainz's speed could make things quite difficult for Verstappen.

Verstappen is lurching towards his tenth consecutive victory in Formula 1. In doing so, he will break Sebastian Vettel's record. That the Red Bull Racing driver was beaten by a Ferrari on Saturday is possibly a first blow in the Italian GP weekend, an omen that the tenth win in a row is not going to come. Indeed, Windsor analyses the two's practice sessions and does not rule out Sainz being fast during Sunday's race as well.

Speed Sainz possibly also on Sunday in Italy

In his analysis, the Brit looks at Sainz's unparalleled top speed of just over 350 km/h and Verstappen's of around 344 km/h. In addition, the analyst also looks at the longer stints both drivers drove in FP3 with more fuel and Windsor sees that even Ferrari's DRS seems to be more powerful than Red Bull's. Sainz's laps were significantly faster.

Windsor: "Verstappen and Sainz both said after qualifying that they will see what will happen tomorrow, in Max's case. And in Carlos Sainz's case, he said, 'Red Bull is always we really strong on fuel runs. We'll see how it goes.' I would say  right now that Carlos is in really, really good shape. If he keeps doing those sort of lap times during the race, then he is going to be able to back away from that limit and start looking after his tyres."

Long time since a Ferrari driver could think about saving tyres

Saving the tyres early in the race could give Sainz the advantage strategically. Windsor says: "Saving tyres is something a Ferrari driver hasn't been able to do for a long time. He really has quite a significant advantage, in terms of the lap times; looking at the top speeds and the low downforce set-up."

Windsor anticipates an interesting joust between Sainz and Verstappen at the start. Windsor: "That will be the Achilles' heel of Ferrari. Max will think, 'If I don't take the lead, I have the advantage of the DRS.' That may or may not be enough to still get past it [...] Sainz could be driving fast enough to stay in front of him and looking after his rear tyres."