F1 Data Analysis | Who will end Verstappen's record in Singapore?

F1 qualifying in Singapore

Source: FIA

Qualifying for the Singapore Grand Prix was perhaps the most exciting edition of the season. With so many drivers competing for pole, it was almost impossible to predict who would eventually get the fastest time. Yet again, it was not a huge surprise that Sainz was the fastest in the end.

After all, Sainz has been fast all weekend, and after Friday in Singapore, things were already looking very good for Ferrari. The Italians have got it right since Monza and can now make good use of the top speed. The extra straight at the Marina Bay Street Circuit came in handy.

Who has the best race pace in Singapore?

Over one lap, Sainz proved to be the best, but how is that in the race? For that, it is best to look at the long run pace during the second free practice session. In that session, the top six (except for Norris, who did a long run on the soft tyre) drove a long run on the medium tyre. So those times are good to compare side-by-side for Sunday's race.

Sainz's long run pace is solid. The Spaniard started with a 1.38.7, moved to the 1.38.0 mark and did not drop further than 1.38.8. Yet it is noticeable that the Ferrari's pace quickly improves. This can also be seen in Leclerc's stint, whose last two laps of the long run reach the 1.39 mark. This shows that Ferrari will have a tough time with the tyres again.

George Russell had the same average pace in his long run as Sainz (both 1.38.4) but had a faster lap of 1.37.7. However, this is also offset by a 1.39.1. Mercedes has generally suffered less wear and tear than Ferrari this year, which is reflected in Lewis Hamilton's long run. The more experienced Briton may start further back on the grid, but the average pace of 1.38.3 and the fact that there seems to be hardly any wear and tear is a positive sign for the German racing team.

In terms of pace, however, one driver is even better off: Fernando Alonso. Not only is Alonso the only one on the medium tyre to lap under 1.38 twice, but the two-time world champion is also the fastest of all drivers on the medium tyre. His average: 1.38.2. Overtaking on the Marina Bay Street Circuit is not easy, making the challenge from P6 tougher for Alonso.

Lando Norris is a bit harder to judge at the moment. The Brit was the only one to drive a long run on the soft tyre but could only complete five timed laps. The McLaren driver was the fastest on average, but of course, on softer tyres and in a shorter stint, that doesn't say much. The main question is how the McLarens' tyres are holding up, as the MCL60 has been struggling with tyre wear all year.

What are Verstappen's chances?

From P11 and P13, it will be almost impossible for Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez, respectively, to fight for the podium, let alone victory. Overtaking is nearly impossible on the Singapore circuit, and Red Bull's pace on Friday was nothing to write home about either.

Perez's average long run pace was still strong at 1.38.2, but the Mexican only drove five laps. Verstappen drove one more lap and averaged 1.38.5. As the setup change from FP3 to qualifying turned out all wrong, there is nothing to suggest that that pace will suddenly be there on Sunday.

Who has the best top speed in Singapore?

With good pace, you can put someone under pressure; with good strategy, you can beat them too. A high top speed comes in handy if you want to pass someone on the track. On Friday, the teams were still far apart in that respect, but it got a lot closer during qualifying. Ferrari is still the fastest in the Speed Trap, but not by a huge margin.

Sainz and Leclerc both achieve the highest top speed but do not have a big margin over Mercedes. At least relative to Hamilton. The seven-time world champion reached 303 km/h at the Speed Trap, while Russell seems to have a setup with slightly more downforce. Russell only reached 300.4 km/h. With a three-kilometre-per-hour lead, Sainz and Leclerc go into the battle with Russell with an advantage.

Lando Norris is eighth in the Speed Trap of qualifying at 302.4 km/h, not far from the Ferrari cars. The McLaren especially lacks top speed, as at the finish line, just after coming out of the final corner, Norris is third in the top speed list. Then he only concedes 0.6 on Sainz and is even faster than Leclerc. So the McLaren has a car that can get through that last corner very well and get on the gas quickly.

Alonso will have a tough time at the Grand Prix. The Spaniard clearly has the pace, but with a top speed of 301.5 km/h, he will have to be very strong to overtake the drivers in front of him. The same goes for Verstappen, who, unlike his teammate's 303.0 km/h, couldn't go faster than 302.1 km/h himself.

Prediction for the Singapore GP

The minimal differences in top speed show that the teams also have little confidence in overtaking at the Marina Bay Street Circuit. The teams and drivers wanted an extra DRS zone on the extra straight, but it did not materialise. As a result, overtaking, as in previous editions, seems nigh on impossible. Top speed is less important to teams; it is all about pace and keeping the tyres in one piece.

In terms of pace, Alonso has the best credentials, but from P6, things will have to get very crazy for him to take the lead. An undercut can be powerful, but surprising five drivers with an undercut might be a bit too much to ask. Alonso could gamble on a safety car, though. Start on a harder tyre and stay out for a long time. The Aston Martin doesn't burn tyres quickly, and with good pace, Alonso could then stay in the lead for a long time, hoping for an incident.

Mercedes could also spread their chances that way. Russell full on the Ferrari's attack, leaving Hamilton on a harder tyre for longer. For Ferrari, it's a bit trickier. With P1 and P3 in hand, they won't want to give up track position so easily. Russell is also on the dirty side, so with a good start, Leclerc even has a chance of entering second at turn one.

It will be up to Russell to keep the pressure as high as possible. The Briton doesn't necessarily have the top speed to overtake, but he does have the pace to follow and/or stay ahead of the Ferraris. He can cause Ferrari to panic and bring in a driver too early. Russell also seems to have the advantage of Mercedes being less prone to tyre wear than Ferrari.

It promises to be an exciting race on Sunday, with chances for the entire top six. The top three said after qualifying that Red Bull Racing should not be ruled out, but the chances of Red Bull driving to the podium are extremely slim. Verstappen and Perez will need a chaotic (rain) race to do so, and even then, it remains to be seen whether the RB19 will be comfortable to drive when it rains in Singapore. Rather, it looks like damage limitation for Red Bull and on to Japan. The win looks set to go elsewhere. The only question is who will take that chance.