Verstappen's rivals stand still: Is Sainz a potential challenger for Max?

How good is Max Verstappen?

In recent years, people have come to think it is just how good Verstappen performs. Every week, Verstappen gets the most out of his car. I wrote about this in my column after his record-setting run in Italy. Now I do it again, strangely enough, after a weekend that didn't go well for Verstappen.

Because Verstappen does not have many weekends like it. Not at all in 2023 until the Singapore Grand Prix. In 2022, you can only point to Singapore and Brazil as weekends when things didn't work out for the Dutchman. In all other weekends over the two years, Verstappen has hardly made a mistake in qualifying or the race.

Verstappen has had that since the 2018 Canadian Grand Prix. The switch flipped after the crash in Monaco, and he became ridiculously consistent. Whether his car was good enough for victory or not, Verstappen got the maximum out of it. That trait earned him the title in 2021 and 2022. The third will soon follow.

Where are Verstappen's challengers?

While plenty of drivers from his generation have been labelled as great talents, none have been able to match Verstappen's level. Leclerc is the biggest example of this. In 2022, he had the chance to compete for the title with Verstappen, but he made big mistakes in Imola and France that helped Verstappen gain a big lead.

Leclerc has not yet learned from those mistakes. In the rest of 2022 and also in 2023, Leclerc still made plenty of mistakes and crashed several times. Leclerc has even been outclassed by his teammate in the last few races.

George Russell is another man identified as a future challenger to Verstappen, but he is yet to impress in 2023. He is fast over one lap, but he is not consistent enough in the races to beat his teammate. Lewis Hamilton is narrowly behind this year on Saturday (7-8 with an average difference of 0.002s), but on Sunday, the seven-time world champion is still a class apart for George. It is 10-4 in the race duel, and in points, it is 180 to 109.

Of course, it is only his second year with a top team, but Russell is only one year younger than Verstappen. Besides, he has been in F1 for five years, and mistakes like those in Singapore are a common thread in his career. Think of the crash earlier this year in Canada, or the contact with Verstappen in Baku or the incident with Valtteri Bottas in Imola a few years back. There seems to be no lesson learned yet.

Lando Norris is the youngest of the bunch at 23, but there are doubts about the Briton. For instance, he lost the duel to Carlos Sainz in their time together at McLaren and is again struggling with rookie teammate Oscar Piastri. Norris occasionally drives a fast qualifying session but also lacks just that bit of magic on Sunday. That is one of the reasons why he has yet to win a race.

Despite Norris being a bit younger, it is worth remembering that Verstappen delivered a ridiculously consistent year in the title battle with Hamilton at the same age. That level of consistency, which Verstappen has been displaying every week since 2018, has not proved achievable for any of his so-called rivals.

Who will stand up at the Singapore Grand Prix?

This became painfully clear again in Singapore: a moment came for the competition to snatch a victory. A moment to stand up as Verstappen's challenger. Final score: of Verstappen's biggest rivals, one finished in the wall, the other lost the qualifying duel to his teammate, and the third was unable to mount even one attack on the eventual winner. With all three, you might ask: if Verstappen had been in that situation, would he have struck?

If you look at 2018, 2019 and 2020, you know the answer is 'yes'. In 2018, Mercedes and Ferrari were embroiled in a championship battle. After the Monaco crash, who won the only race besides the Mercedes and Ferrari drivers? Verstappen. The same goes for 2019. Then, six races were won by non-Mercedes drivers. Three by Verstappen, three by Ferrari (with a remarkably fast engine). In 2020, Verstappen also won twice, and two chaotic races were won by Pierre Gasly (AlphaTauri) and Sergio Perez (Racing Point).

Is Sainz a challenger to Verstappen?

Everyone knew Singapore was the moment to beat Red Bull. The fact that Sainz, of all people, comes out on top is remarkable. The Spaniard has never been known as a huge talent, yet he is starting to build a nice CV. A strong teammate of Verstappen at Toro Rosso, equal if not stronger than Norris at McLaren and now increasingly getting the upper hand in the duel with Charles Leclerc at Ferrari, Maranello's 'star'. Sainz continues to develop, seemingly outpacing the other talents.

Whereas Russell, Leclerc and Norris seem somewhat stagnant for years, Sainz keeps growing. This makes him perhaps the most interesting driver to follow. How much further can he grow?

On the other hand, this race also shows again how extraordinary Verstappen has been performing since 2018. No one has made as few mistakes as Verstappen in that period. Nobody is as efficient when it comes to taking opportunities when they arise. It shows a lack of quality and development among Verstappen's rivals, but it also shows once again that Verstappen is simply exceptional.