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F1 Data Analysis | Will Verstappen lap everyone at the Japanese Grand Prix?

22 September 2023 at 12:30

Tim Kraaij

After a disappointing weekend in Singapore, Max Verstappen is back on track at the Suzuka Circuit. Not only did the Red Bull Racing driver finish the two free practice sessions fastest, but he was also the fastest man in the long runs. It is clear who the favourite is for the Japanese Grand Prix, but what does the battle behind Verstappen look like?

Who is the favourite for pole position in Japan?

Source: Formula 1

Verstappen closed the two free practice sessions in Japan as the fastest driver. In the second free practice, Verstappen did so with a time of 1.30.688. With that, Verstappen was over three-tenths faster than second-placed Charles Leclerc. In the first free practice, this difference was even six-tenths. Then, too, a Ferrari could be found in second place. In that case, Carlos Sainz.

In the qualifying runs in FP2, it became clear that Verstappen has the best chance for Saturday's F1 qualifying. The Dutchman is especially lightning fast in sector one, and he doesn't lose that advantage through the rest of the lap. Ferrari are closest.

Another team in good shape is McLaren. Lando Norris, in particular, feels comfortable at Suzuka. It's a good circuit for the McLaren, but just not fast enough over one lap to be in front of the Ferraris. Oscar Piastri is a bit further back but is driving with the updates for the first time. Norris already got these in Singapore, and Piastri has never driven at Suzuka.

For Mercedes, things are not looking good for the time being. George Russell finished fifth, six-tenths down, and Lewis Hamilton is all the way down in P14. More than a second behind Verstappen. Fernando Alonso was eight-tenths down to Verstappen over one lap.

Who has the best long run pace at Suzuka?

Talking about race pace, again, one man stands out. Verstappen drove his longrun on Pirelli's test tyre. That is supposed to be the new C2 tyre, which is somewhat similar to the medium tyre used by the other drivers. On that test tyre, Verstappen is going faster than the rest.

	Verstappen (T)	Perez (M)	Leclerc (M)	Sainz (M)	Norris (S)
	1.36.4	1.37.7	1.37.8	1.37.6	1.37.1
	1.37.4	1.37.3	1.37.5	1.37.8	1.37.8
	1.37.4	1.37.5	1.37.6	1.37.8	1.38.7
	1.37.3	1.37.7	1.38.0	1.38.4	1.37.7
	1.37.8	1.38.5	1.38.6	1.39.1	1.38.1
	1.37.9	1.38.5	1.39.5	1.39.4	1.38.4
	1.38.2	1.39.0	1.38.6	1.39.0	1.38.6
		1.39.1		1.39.3	1.38.6
		1.39.1			1.38.9
		1.39.4
		1.39.4
Average	1.37.5	1.38.5	1.38.2	1.38.6	1.38.2

Verstappen impresses with his fastest opening lap, which nobody else reaches. He really impresses with the string of lap times in the 1.37s. Only the Ferraris and McLarens set a few laps in the 1.37s, but nowhere near the five that Verstappen sets consecutively. Verstappen ended his session with a 1.38.2.

Unlike his qualifying run, Sergio Perez is sitting pretty in the long run. The Mexican does not achieve the same times as Verstappen but is significantly faster and more consistent than the competition. What is striking about Perez is how much his pace drops. He ended his stint with four laps in the 1.39s.

These are problems that Ferrari know all too well. Even earlier than Perez, Leclerc and Sainz burn through their tyres and soon reach the 1.39s. That's a huge gap compared to the 1.37s that Verstappen can still manage later in his run. So, the Ferrari will not be looking forward but mostly backwards.

McLaren, in particular, looks good in that respect. On the soft tyre, Norris achieved 1.37 several times, and his consistency is especially remarkable. Whereas the Ferrari on the medium tyre loses a lot of time after four/five laps, Norris' pace is steady despite driving on the softer tyre. Norris completed more laps, none of which were slower than a 1.38.9.

	Alonso (M)	Russell (S)	Hamilton (S)
	1.37.4	1.37.5	1.38.6
	1.38.0	1.38.1	1.38.8
	1.38.3	1.38.4	1.38.7
	1.38.5	1.38.8	1.38.5
	1.38.6	1.38.8	1.38.9
	1.39.3	1.39.1
	1.39.8	1.39.3
	1.39.1



Average	1.38.6	1.38.6	1.38.7

Norris looks like the leading candidate for the podium spot alongside Verstappen and Perez. Fernando Alonso is there but comes up short over one lap and in the long run. Mercedes are also struggling at Suzuka for now. Russell managed one lap on the soft tyre in the 1.37s, only to see the tyres wear out quickly. Hamilton's stint is more consistent but a lot shorter than the stints of, say, Norris. If you compare those times, McLaren is much faster than Mercedes' factory team.

Prediction for the Japanese Grand Prix weekend

Red Bull are back in full force at Suzuka. Even in terms of top speed, the Austrian racing team are again the fastest of all (330 km/h) without losing out in the twisty parts of the circuit. Ferrari still has more top speed (329 km/h) than the Mercedes-powered teams (326/327 km/h), but the difference is much smaller than in previous race weekends.

Verstappen is the big favourite here, and given the pace of the RB19, Perez should finish second on Sunday. In qualifying, Ferrari and McLaren seem most likely to claim the places behind them, with McLaren the clear favourites for Sunday. Lando Norris' pace, in particular, looks impressive, and at Suzuka, Ferrari can no longer camouflage tyre wear with good top speed or deliberately push race pace.

Mercedes have yet to make a move but could benefit from Ferrari's relegation. In general, Mercedes' car suffers less from tyre wear, but they need to find more speed than they demonstrated on Friday. Aston Martin don't seem as competitive as they were at the start of the season. Fernando Alonso is there, but competing for a podium seems too much to ask.

Alexander Albon is also in good shape again. Especially in the qualifying run, the Thai was very strong. It will be harder for him to keep the tyres strong in the race. In that respect, Alfa Romeo and AlphaTauri are looking good. Those two teams were on good pace in the long runs and will be hoping to pick up some points on Sunday.