F1 Data Analysis | Can Verstappen be stopped at all in Japan?

F1 Qualifying in Japan

Source: FIA

There was no beating Max Verstappen in qualifying for the Japanese Grand Prix on Saturday. The (as of now only) two-time world champion was over half a second faster in Q3 than his closest chaser, Oscar Piastri. Only Verstappen managed to get a time under 1.29 in Q3. At least in qualifying, the gap to the rest was enormous.

Who has the best race pace in Japan?

Knowing that the Red Bull is usually better during the race - and Friday's long runs gave a fine indication of that - only blunt bad luck would seem to be able to keep Verstappen from his 48th Grand Prix victory on Sunday. In total, Verstappen drove eighteen laps in FP2 on Friday - only Guanyu Zhou went around the Suzuka circuit less often - but then the Dutchman was the quickest. There was really no one who could come close to the championship leader, both on a flying lap and certainly during the long runs. On average, Verstappen was a second faster per lap than the competition - even than his teammate Sergio Perez in the same car.

Verstappen did his long run on Pirelli's test tyre, which is said to be comparable to the mediums (on which Perez and both Ferraris drove, for example). The Red Bull driver started his race simulation with a lap of 1.36.449, before setting four solid laps in the mid 1.37s. After a lap high in the 1.37 and a cool-down lap, he ended his long run with a 1.37.986 and 1.38.213 (an average of 1.37.548). Teammate Perez recorded times above 1.39 in his seventh and eighth laps on mediums (without having driven a cool-down lap). He reached an average time of 1.38.521.

At Ferrari, the fastest time on mediums during the long runs was already a second slower than Verstappen. Moreover, tyre degradation started earlier for the Italian squad much faster than the defending constructors' champion's, Red Bull. Sainz, for instance, was already closer to a 1.38 on his fourth lap; a lap later, the Spaniard was already entering the low 1.39s. Noteworthy, however, was the difference between the two Ferraris. As the long runs progressed, the time difference between Sainz and Leclerc grew, the former eventually averaged a pace half a second faster than his Monegasque teammate.

In qualifying, Mercedes did not come close on Saturday, but on Sunday the car of Lewis Hamilton and George Russell is usually a lot stronger. Judging from Friday's long runs, the Mercedes and Ferrari are pretty evenly matched on Sunday, but the Italians obviously have the advantage of a better starting position on the grid. The McLarens seem out of the picture for Mercedes anyway. During Friday's long runs, Oscar Piastri went around in an average of 1.37.808, while Lando Norris averaged 1.38.328. Only Verstappen was (comfortably) faster than Piastri, who thus gets to start the race from the front row of the grid.

Who has the highest top speed in Japan?

On the super-fast Suzuka circuit, there is only one DRS zone. So overtaking in other areas has to be done entirely under the drivers' own quickness. Then a good top speed is necessary. At the speed trap, it was Logan Sargeant who recorded the highest speed. With Alex Albon as number two at this point, it can thus be concluded that Williams had the highest top speed.

1. Williams 308.7 (km/h)
2. Alpine 307.2 (km/h)
3. Red Bull 306.7 (km/h)
4. Haas 306.7 (km/h)
5. Ferrari 303.9 (km/h)
6. McLaren 303.0 (km/h)
7. Mercedes 302.8 (km/h)
8. Aston Martin 302.5 (km/h)
9. AlphaTauri 302.3 (km/h)
10. Alfa Romeo 299.9 (km/h)

Japanese GP forecast

It promises to be a hugely exciting race in Japan on Sunday. At least, behind Max Verstappen. If the Dutchman starts the race without any problems, nothing or no one seems to have the speed to keep up with him at all. If Verstappen does lose a few places at the start, he will have so much speed that he and his Red Bull will at some point overtake the competition.

More interesting will be the battle behind the Dutchman. McLaren showed fine pace on Friday, but on softs. On a track with a high tyre degradation, the softs could be burned up particularly quickly, basically faster than the mediums. Moreover, Piastri and Norris will no doubt have to look in their mirrors at Sergio Perez. Verstappen is proving what speed there is in the RB19, it is up to Perez to get it out. In races, Perez is usually better than in qualifying and even if he has to concede half a second a lap to Verstappen, the McLarens should therefore stay ahead of the Mexican.

Ferrari and Mercedes seem evenly matched, but finishing on the podium is going to be a hell of a task for both teams. Being able to collect a trophy at the end of the race is also Yuki Tsunoda's goal, the Japanese announced in the run-up to his home race. Perhaps the support of the home fans will give the AlphaTauri driver that little bit extra to surprise everyone at Suzuka. Well, everyone... Verstappen seems unbeatable for him and everyone else.