Verstappen and Red Bull still have no challenger in Formula 1

Why Red Bull Racing can dominate F1 so much

At the moment, Red Bull Racing and Max Verstappen hold the reins firmly in Formula 1. After finishing second in the sprint race in Qatar, Verstappen very cleverly pointed out: 'We have a very strong team, with some very clever people who have stayed together for a very long time.' Those clever people Verstappen refers to are at the heart of this successful team.

Helmut Marko, Christian Horner, Adrian Newey, Jonathan Wheatley, Paul Monaghan, Gianpiero Lambiase. These are just some of the names Verstappen will be referring to. A strong core within Red Bull that has worked together for years, of which Verstappen has also been a part for eight years. That foundation is what allows Red Bull to remain so successful.

As a team, Red Bull are currently in a unique situation. The rules remain the same until 2025, and with the Newey-designed car, the Austrian racing team are well ahead of the competition. Competitors are now rushing to copy the RB19, but a copy is never as good as the original and Red Bull will only continue to develop.

Challengers are, therefore, scarce at the moment. Red Bull have more points combined (630) than the two closest chasers, Mercedes (310) and Ferrari (288) combined. It shows their dominance this season but also the huge task facing their rivals. We are not talking about a gap of tenths to close, but in nine out of 10 races, Verstappen is driving a second a lap away from his rivals.

Where do Red Bull's competitors stand?

Mercedes are, therefore, taking a different route in terms of design in 2024. More in the direction of Red Bull, but where Newey has been learning more about that concept for two years, James Allison is starting from scratch. The same goes for Ferrari, where the technical team is not yet complete due to all the staff who left earlier.

At McLaren, things are looking pretty good now, but McLaren remains a Mercedes customer and so can never optimally tune the car to the engine the way Red Bull, Ferrari and Mercedes can. In addition, McLaren are working with the new wind tunnel for the first time before 2024, and the new technical people are also pouring in for 2024. Only then will it really become clear whether the current developments come from the new technical team or still from the sacked James Key.

Aston Martin are in the same boat as McLaren. Very competitive at the start of the year, but as a Mercedes customer, never as optimised as Red Bull with Honda. Aston Martin has their sights firmly set on 2026 when they will get going with Honda themselves. Until then, they must get the most out of it, but that is pretty tough with Lance Stroll as their second driver.

No team has it as good as Red Bull. At Mercedes, you can still speak of good organisation. A team boss who has been running the show for years, a returned top technical director in James Allison and two good drivers. However, Mercedes will start with a completely new car in 2024 and have a lot to learn about it. In addition, should the car be good, it remains to be seen how the drivers' situation will unfold.

Competitors for Verstappen

Whereas at Red Bull, in nine cases out of 10, it will be Verstappen who wins if Red Bull have the best car, at Mercedes, it is fifty-fifty. The two are extremely close to each other. That is already causing occasional turmoil. How does that work out when it comes to a title battle? If they keep taking points off each other, Verstappen will still run away with the title.

At Ferrari, they face the same problem. If they already manage to build a car fast enough to challenge Verstappen, who is on that same level? Leclerc and Sainz did not appear ready for that challenge in 2022. We are a few years on, but since then, Leclerc has not shown he has learned from those mistakes. Indeed, he continues to have weekends where he crashes his car, something you never see Verstappen do.

Carlos Sainz, on the other hand, showed in Monza and Singapore that he continues to develop as a driver but is no challenger to Verstappen over an entire year either. For that, he simply loses the duel to his teammate too often in qualifying and/or the race.

An interesting situation is also emerging at McLaren. The team has an excellent package on track with high-speed corners, but a problem also looms for the Woking-based team. After all, Oscar Piastri is a very fast rookie indeed. The comparison with Lewis Hamilton (2007) and Max Verstappen (2016-2018) is quickly made. In those situations, the youngest driver turned out to be the new leader for the team, while the experienced driver slowly faded into the background. A similar scenario lurks at McLaren.

Lando Norris has been considered a talent for years, but doubts appear. After two years alongside Carlos Sainz, a clear front-runner was brought in as a replacement with Daniel Ricciardo. So Norris was not yet put forward as the new number one. And even when Norris won that duel, Ricciardo's contract was bought off to pinch a great talent away from Alpine. The reason: 'Lando needs someone who can challenge him more,' Zak Brown revealed when Piastri was appointed.

It says it all. Such a thing will never be said about Verstappen's teammate. Norris is a strong driver, but Piastri's arrival and current performance in his first F1 season show that Norris is not unbeatable. A contract through 2026 shows the confidence McLaren has in the Australian, while Norris is visibly increasingly affected by the situation. The situation is suspiciously similar to Ricciardo's at Red Bull Racing.

Is there even a challenger for the next few years?

All in all, there is something to be noted about all of Verstappen's competitors. The teams are not quite stable yet, or there is no clear driver who could challenge Verstappen if the car is good enough. This is in stark contrast to the situation at Red Bull. Yes, some people have been snatched by others over the years, but the core has remained. That creates calm and ensures that Red Bull can continue to perform in the coming years.

The tide could turn quickly in Formula 1, but with regulations fixed until 2025 and a lead of about a second over the competition, it does not look like a real challenger will emerge soon. Of course, the competition will get closer in 2024 and 2025, but even then, it remains to be seen whether the near-perfect Verstappen can be beaten by any of the other drivers over a full season. At the moment, Piastri seems to have the most potential for that, but at the moment, even a title fight for him comes too soon if you look at his race at Suzuka.