Why the Hamilton transfer says a lot about Ferrari AND Mercedes

When Lewis Hamilton stood up on 7 January this year and looked in the mirror, he may have realised: 'in exactly one year, I will be 40'. It is a respectable age, and 40 is the new 30. But it is 40 all the same. As an elite athlete, the future is then mainly behind you, and you may be able to play an important role in Formula 1 for one, two, and possibly three more seasons.

For Hamilton, time is running out

So if Hamilton wants to fulfil his burning ambition to become world champion for an eighth time, time is running out. The Brit has probably concluded that in the relatively short time left to him in the sport, every year counts. Every year, he does not have access to equipment capable of winning Grands Prix - let alone a championship - it is a lost year.

Ferrari made serious strides during last season, resulting in a win in Singapore and a total of seven poles. The speed is there, and it is increasing. The right path has been set; now it comes down to further fine-tuning. And Mercedes? Thanks to a phenomenal lap by Hamilton in Hungary, they had to make do with one paltry pole in 2023.

Mercedes in limbo

However, according to team boss Toto Wolff and technical director James Allison, the omens for the W15 are excellent. But didn't they say the same last season? Hamilton then got into his car during the test in Bahrain and immediately knew: 'This is not going to be it'. With a completely new concept, Mercedes hope to do better than the last two years, but it is certainly not a given. Even if the W15 is better than its two predecessors, the German team will undoubtedly be (insurmountably) behind Red Bull Racing and probably Ferrari.

There is a real chance that Ferrari will be much closer to Red Bull than Mercedes. A strong SF-25, in Hamilton's hands, could produce a very dangerous combination. It is not yet certain that Ferrari can become champions, but the Italian team's short-term future is undoubtedly better. Perhaps Mercedes will prevail again in 2026 - with a new rule change - but that is an eternity away, given Hamilton's age. He can't actually wait for that.

As much as Hamilton says he loves Mercedes and maintains a good relationship with Wolff, the Briton has made a simple analysis here. With Ferrari, the chances of success are greater in the short term than with Mercedes. Seen in this light, a move to the Italian team is perfectly logical and understandable.