Why Verstappen is right to worry about Ferrari (and McLaren)

"We struggled all weekend to find the right balance. Therefore, it is still a bit difficult to assess how we keep the tyres alive tomorrow. This pole already feels a bit like a bonus. Heading into the race, I am less confident of a win than I was earlier in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia."

The Red Bull Racing driver is known for being very honest and open. After Friday's practice, Verstappen was calm and relaxed. Now, after qualifying, the Dutchman also remains analytical. The pole position has been secured, but the race is another story.

Why Verstappen is unsure

And that makes sense after Verstappen's somewhat messy weekend. On Friday, he sustained damage to his floor during the first free practice session, forcing the Dutchman to miss 20 minutes of the valuable FP2. As a result, there was limited time for a qualifying run, and the long run was also simply not very long.

Long runs FP2

The race simulation was not fast. In the four laps Verstappen drove, he did not come close to the times set by Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz. Teammate Sergio Perez also failed to do a longer run.

On Saturday, Red Bull tried to put things in order. The Austrian team spent time in FP3, completing a long run on medium tyres. The competition improved setup and qualifying runs, which Red Bull hopes to take advantage of on Sunday.

That long run was considerably better than the day before. Perez was, on average, a few tenths per lap faster than on Friday, and Verstappen, in particular, showed a good long run. The Dutchman recorded the fastest average and was also pretty consistent.

Still, some nuance is in order. You cannot directly compare Verstappen's Saturday long run with Charles Leclerc's on Friday because the latter was completed at a different time of day. Besides, the difference between the two runs was not great, and both runs dropped at the end.

Why Ferrari and McLaren can win in Australia

One advantage Verstappen can hold on to, however, is the RB20's top speed. Overtaking has become easier at Albert Park due to track modifications and the four DRS zones, but with Red Bull Racing's car's top speed, rivals will find it difficult to pass Verstappen or Perez.

The Red Bull car records the highest speed at the Speed Trap. The difference with the Ferrari drivers, surely Sunday's biggest challengers to Red Bull, is about five kilometres per hour. Therefore, it will be tough for Sainz and Leclerc to really go on the attack.

However, after Friday's second free practice, McLaren must also be considered. Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris both did a long run on the medium tyre without any major dip. That run was not as fast as Leclerc's and Verstappen's, but it was more consistent. With Leclerc's inferior qualifying (4th) and Perez's grid penalty (6th), Norris and Piastri will start from P3 and P5, respectively. So, they, too, have a good chance to compete for the win.