Is Antonelli still Mercedes' best alternative to Verstappen?

Mercedes has been struggling with the car since the introduction of the new regulations in 2022. The team has been making small steps forward, but the shock was great when, in early 2024, the team appeared to have failed to step up to the top. McLaren and Ferrari had surpassed Mercedes.

Mercedes were at their wits' end. Until suddenly, the penny dropped. In Monaco, Mercedes came out with updates and was suddenly at the front every weekend. Since the Canadian Grand Prix, Mercedes scored the most points of any team. In Canada and Spain, a Mercedes driver stood on the podium, and in Austria and Britain, they even won.

Is Mercedes now a top team again?

From the team that drove around in no man's land, Mercedes suddenly became a team that could compete for prizes. This also directly changes Toto Wolff's position. Wolff made Max Verstappen his top contender but quickly stated that Verstappen would be crazy if he signed with Mercedes. After all, the car was not fast enough. Now that that car is fast enough, Wolff is smart enough to court Verstappen.

The alternative for Verstappen seemed simple: Antonelli. The Italian is a Mercedes junior and has been labelled a huge talent. His impressive sprint race victory in the rain was a confirmation of his talent, although the Italian has yet to show it with any great regularity this year.

While the fourth team on the grid is a great place for a young driver to debut, one might wonder if Mercedes' improving form is good news for Antonelli. If the team can continue this form, they will most likely be title contenders in 2025. Then, in the battle with Red Bull Racing, McLaren and possibly Ferrari, putting a rookie in the car alongside George Russell is a big risk.

The last driver to do so successfully was the man to succeed at Mercedes. Lewis Hamilton debuted at McLaren in 2007 and competed for the world title until the last day. The huge battle between Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton proved fatal for McLaren. Kimi Raikkonen was laughing with the title.

Is Sainz a better option than Antonelli?

More recent examples show that rookies need time to perform consistently in F1. Oscar Piastri won F3 and F2 in his first season, but he too took time to be close to Lando Norris every weekend. Or consider Alexander Albon and Pierre Gasly, who were put alongside Max Verstappen at Red Bull Racing after six months and a year respectively. All good drivers, but they all perished from having to compete too quickly at the front and being under a magnifying glass every week.

Verstappen will still be Wolff's number one, but it is no surprise that Carlos Sainz's name is also heard again. The Spaniard would be an extremely suitable replacement for Hamilton. With his experience and proven speed, Mercedes know what they are getting into and could compete for the world title straight away, car permitting. With Antonelli, that's a much bigger risk.

A disadvantage for Sainz, and thus the reason why he is delaying his decision for as long as possible, is the fact that Mercedes is also looking to the future. If Mercedes does not opt for Antonelli and Verstappen in 2025, they want to keep that door open for 2026. So Sainz shouldn't expect a long term deal. Though he could probably sign a long deal at Williams, Audi and Alpine. However, those teams are still far away from fighting for the world title.

This article was written in collaboration with Olly Darcy