Could Verstappen's future be determined by Red Bull's updates?

Sure, Verstappen leads the world championship comfortably, mainly because he is currently by far the fastest driver on the grid, always manages to get something extra out of his RB20 and is also incredibly consistent. But Verstappen has not been in the fastest car for some time: McLaren and perhaps even Mercedes have cars that are at least equivalent to Red Bull's cars - if not faster.

On several occasions already, Verstappen has made it loud and clear that Red Bull must do better. With a sweeping update package, Red Bull hopes to take that next step this weekend, to at least keep up in the development race. "An important weekend," Verstappen therefore calls it. "If this doesn't give us a good lap time, then I don't know how the rest of the season evolves."

Success updates vital for Red Bull

This may sound dramatic, but it is no less true. If Red Bull unexpectedly misses the mark with these updates, it will be very difficult to turn the tide in the remaining 11 Grand Prix weekends. If so, expect more wins from McLaren and Mercedes, because at some point not even Verstappen's class can beat the competition's advanced technology. And if Red Bull were to lose track this season, it does not bode well for 2025 - when competitors continue to improve their well-performing bolides.

The fact that Mercedes, of all teams, now has the long-standing leak of winning twice this season is extra piquant. After all, this is the team that still has hopes of contracting Max Verstappen for next season. After all, what is the best thing for Verstappen to do if Mercedes is suddenly the team to watch and Red Bull has dropped away? Verstappen is a loyal Red Bull driver, that much is certain. He really wants to continue racing for the Austrian team in 2025. His relationship with his mechanics is fantastic, for them, the Dutchman will continue to go through fire and water.

Mercedes the strongest engine in '26?

But Verstappen also wants to win. And if Red Bull suddenly finds itself behind Mercedes, what then? Especially with an eye on 2026, because that is when a completely new engine regulation comes into force and Verstappen is convinced that Mercedes produces the strongest power source for that. Red Bull will introduce the self-developed Red Bull Powertrains that same year and it remains to be seen how strong these engines will be.

Although Red Bull has brought in some good people for this project, the fact is that no self-produced power unit has ever rolled off the assembly line in Milton Keynes. In modern Formula 1, there has never been a team at all that has produced a dominant power unit from scratch. So the omens are murky.

All in all, Hungary's update is very important for Max Verstappen's future. First of all, then, because he wants to keep winning this season and next. And for the slightly longer term: what if Red Bull falls behind Mercedes and McLaren in terms of chassis - teams that are currently demonstrating their ability to build strong chassis - while the extent of the success of the Red Bull Powertrains in the slightly longer term is also unclear? Might it then be wise to still look elsewhere?

This article was written in collaboration with Ben Stevens.