Why Lewis Hamilton has suddenly become dangerous again in F1

Hamilton's dip is now clear to see

Hamilton has always been vocal in praising his team. The guys and girls at Mercedes' factories frequently receive praise and encouragement during Hamilton's interviews post-race, and even more so when there's an upgrade for Hamilton to test. Though Hamilton's concluding words in the paddock following the 2023 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix spoke volumes. 

Hamilton and George Russell scored enough points in the race to secure P2 for Mercedes in the World Championship. The seven-time World Champion didn't have the best of races and finished ninth, but it ensured his record of scoring points at every Grand Prix weekend in 2023 remained in place. Despite this, Hamilton was downbeat and frankly running on empty. He was asked by Sky Sports what the best thing was in 2023: "the fact I survived it".

"For Red Bull to win by 17 seconds, and they haven’t developed since August, is definitely a concern. We’ve learnt a lot about the car. It’s down to the team now. Whether we’ll get there, we’ll see," Hamilton said in Abu Dhabi.

That last sentence would suggest he didn't entirely trust the team to close the gap enough during the winter break. His confidence levels were low. Of course, what followed was the announcement of his departure to Ferrari, but that wasn't everything.

Russell's dominance often left Hamilton feeling downbeat in 2024. At one point, the Mercedes qualifying duel stood at 8-1. After qualifying in Monaco, Hamilton even admitted to thinking he wouldn't qualify ahead of Russell for the remainder of 2024. Hamilton has since proved that wrong.

Hamilton's mojo returns, and that makes him dangerous

The biggest change is a competitive Mercedes car. An upgrade at the Canadian Grand Prix weekend changed everything. At the time, optimism was put on hold. Russell secured pole position and a podium, but it took place on a unique circuit in unique conditions and - at the time - unique circumstances which saw an uncompetitive Ferrari and Sergio Perez.

Despite that cloudy vision, Hamilton knew the consequences at the time. He branded it as one of the worst races in his career and was visibly downbeat about his own performance. The attention had switched from the car to himself. 

That seemingly lit a fire inside the seven-time World Champion. Since then, he has scored at least 15 points from every Grand Prix weekend and ended his nearly 1,000-day win draught at Silverstone. In Belgium, he benefitted from Russell's disqualification but had to be there to earn it. In fact, he drove a near-faultless race himself that weekend. The GPblog ratings tell the story. Hamilton didn't get a score above 6 until Spain, when he scored eight. He has gone on to score another eight, a nine and a ten. 

Hamilton has always been consistent. In fact, he was the only driver - along with Max Verstappen - to score points at every weekend in 2023. But his form post-summer break has always been something to take note of. A spurt in 2021 helped him go to Abu Dhabi level on points with Verstappen. A run of wins was only halted by a COVID-19 infection in 2020. In 2017 and 2018, he took control of the Championship from Sebastian Vettel. And in 2016 he had a run of successful results that just weren't enough to topple Nico Rosberg.

Yes, the car has improved. But Hamilton is out of his confidence and mental dip. A reset button will be pushed during the summer break, and Hamilton will be a danger in the remaining ten races. A title push is well out of the question, but third or perhaps even second in the World Championship shouldn't be dismissed.