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Data shows Piastri's growth: should Norris worry in 2025?
Oscar Piastri seemed unable to make the next step in 2024. Lando Norris was the man to lead the title fight, while Piastri ended up in a second fiddle role. Underlying data, however, shows that Piastri did take a step forward and so may be an even bigger threat to his teammate at McLaren in 2025.
As Toro Rosso team boss, Franz Tost, had one maxim for the Red Bull talents from the Red Bull Junior Team: after three years, you know how good they really are. Tost was a champion at moulding talents for the real thing at Red Bull Racing or elsewhere on the grid.
Sebastian Vettel and Max Verstappen did not need three years at Toro Rosso, but all the other drivers needed that training path. Carlos Sainz, Pierre Gasly and Daniel Ricciardo were all quietly trained to eventually be ready for the big time. After three years, you do continue to gain experience, but the biggest progression has been made by then, was Tost's belief.
Anyone looking at Piastri with that knowledge can assume that Piastri has one more big step to take in 2025. In 2023, Piastri made a big impression in his debut season for McLaren. After a bitter divorce with Alpine, Piastri remained calm and was very close to Norris in his first season. The Brit was in his fifth year in F1 at the time, making him a good benchmark for the young Australian.
Piastri's debut season in F1
In the first year, Norris was the better, as could be expected, but in both races and qualifying, Piastri was ahead quite often for a rookie. In the sprint race in Qatar, Piastri even registered a win in F1 before his teammate. It promised much for 2024, but the step Piastri managed to take last year was small in the face of it.
Indeed, those who looked at the big picture saw that Norris was once again the better one within McLaren in 2024. The driver from Bristol was the one competing for the world title, and Piastri was the one who at some point had to play the role of second fiddle to his teammate. The qualifying duel (16-8) and the race duel (20-4) did not exactly seem to indicate Piastri's progress either.
However, if you look deeper into the data, you will see that Piastri did make a leap forward. First in terms of points: where Piastri accounted for 32% of points in 2023, that share rose to 44% in 2024. Norris was still the better, but Piastri had narrowed the gap considerably.
The same was true in qualifying. Although the duel suggested that Norris had moved further ahead of Piastri, the underlying data showed a different picture. Norris won the 2023 duel 15-7, then the 2024 game 20-4 was a wider win. However, the average qualification difference decreased. Whereas Piastri was 0.211s short of Norris on average in 2023, it was just 0.171s per qualifying session in 2024.
How Piastri can become world champion
So Piastri did lose to Norris more often, but the differences were smaller. Whenever Piastri won, Norris was close and vice versa. So Norris was still the clear number one, but in year two Piastri had taken a step forward.
Apart from the numbers, the relationships within the team also have to be taken into account. Because Piastri was a bit behind Norris at the beginning of the year, Norris continuously got the updates earlier than his teammate. A logical choice by the team to give Norris the better parts sooner, but all the more clever that Piastri still managed to keep the gap so small.
The third year in F1 has to be Piastri's year. From day one, it is clear that McLaren will compete for the world title. For Piastri himself to have a chance at that title, he will have to be even closer to Norris from day one, or even in front of him. Only then will he at some point get the treatment Norris got in 2024. If Tost is right, there is still one big step forward in it for Piastri. The main question is how big that step will still be.
This article was written in collaboration with Norberto Mujica
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