Red Bull without Honda: A return to Renault, Verstappen's nightmare?

The return to Renault

With the departure of Honda, Red Bull faces a difficult decision: Which engine supplier are we going to for 2022? There are three engine suppliers left in Formula 1 and they all have their own team: Renault, Ferrari and Mercedes. The status that Red Bull had as a factory team with Honda will therefore most likely disappear.

The first and most likely option requires some egos to be put aside. The cooperation between Renault and Red Bull Racing has been very fruitful between 2010 and 2013, but after the four world titles, tensions grew ever higher. A stream of outages due to engine problems made Red Bull decide to take the gamble with Honda.

Can Red Bull still go back? After all the statements that have been made about Renault, the red carpet isn't being rolled out. And Renault want to return to the top of Formula 1 in 2022 with Fernando Alonso. However, it may well be the only option.

Where Ferrari and Mercedes deliver their engines to different customers, Renault will be without customers from 2021. This means no revenue for Renault, but also simply that it has to comply with a rule. If all engine manufacturers refuse to supply an engine, then the manufacturer with the fewest suppliers must meet this demand.

So we're likely to find ourselves in a situation where Ferrari and Mercedes refuse to deliver their engine and Renault can't refuse. Red Bull is then stuck with Renault and vice versa. Anyone who watches the first season of Drive to Survive will have to laugh at some of the comments.

Is Ferrari still an option?

Renault, therefore, seems the only option for Red Bull Racing, but let's also take a look at the other suppliers. Ferrari currently supplies Alfa Romeo and Haas and has supplied engines to Red Bull and Toro Rosso in the past. For Red Bull this was only in 2006, but Toro Rosso and Ferrari worked closely together for ten seasons between 2007 and 2016. A Renault engine was only used in 2014 and 2015.

So the tyres are there and for Toro Rosso, the Italian engine wouldn't even be such a bad idea. AlphaTauri already wants to become more independent as a team and already won a race in 2008 with a Ferrari engine. Ferrari will also not see AlphaTauri as a competitor as quickly and therefore supply engines to this team sooner.

That is different for Red Bull. Ferrari doesn't like competition. Not within the team and not from other teams. Verstappen has accused them of foul play before and will not fail to point this out again. Ferrari won't want a team who can beat them with their own engine. 

Mercedes delivers to the competitor

Mercedes will supply engines to Aston Martin, Williams and McLaren in 2021, already supplying engines to most teams. With McLaren, a competitor has joined and Aston Martin also expresses high ambitions. 

Red Bull would of course prefer to switch to Mercedes. The Germans have been able to build the best engine since the introduction of the hybrid engines and with the knowledge of Adrian Newey, Red Bull would like to compete with the same equipment. However, with three customers already on file, this seems the least logical option.

However, there are still doubts about the future of Mercedes in Formula 1. Should Mercedes pull the plug from its own team, then all options are open to supply the engine to different teams. Without its own tam in the sport, that will be a lot easier, but Mercedes has signed the Concorde Agreement and thus seems to intend to stay in F1.

Any new engine suppliers ready?

The last option is a new engine supplier, but that's perhaps the least likely option of all. The Honda project that started later than Mercedes, Ferrari and Renault has shown how much it costs to develop a competitive and reliable engine, let alone a competitive engine to compete for the world title, because no one outside Mercedes has succeeded yet. .

That is the goal of Red Bull Racing. Cosworth, Porsche or Audi might someday be able to step in, but they probably will when new engine regulations come in 2026. That is the time to step in and not at the end of the development of the current generation of engines.

If Red Bull chooses to do this, it will be a long-term project and it seems only logical that a driver like Max Verstappen will leave. With that added risk, it seems unlikely that Red Bull will choose a new supplier in 2022 and it will have to do with one of the current suppliers.

This article was written by Tim Kraaij and first appeared on GPblog.com/nl