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What does the rainfall in Japan mean for Verstappen's title chances?

9 October 2022 at 07:34
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  • GPblog.com

The Japanese Grand Prix is at a standstill after a chaotic start and increasing rainfall. The restart has been postponed and it is not known when - and if - the race can resume. For this reason, there is a possibility that a full race distance cannot be covered and half points will be handed out. What does this mean for Max Verstappen's title chances?

Verstappen's chances in rain-shortened Japan

To take the title at Suzuka, Verstappen needs to increase the gap to Leclerc by eight points and the gap to teammate Sergio Perez by six points. However, that will be a tricky task in the case reduced points are handed out, a scenario that is becoming increasingly likely.

So what options are there for the course of the race? A full race distance seems out of the question in advance, as the counter is running and the race must finish within the set time. From a race distance covered of 75 per cent, full points are handed out.

Alternatively, between 50 and 75 per cent is covered. In that case, victory earns 19 points, second place 14 points and third place 12 points. The point for the fastest lap also remains. In this case, if Verstappen wins the race and puts the fastest lap to his name, Leclerc may not finish higher than third.

If between 25 and 50 per cent, points will be awarded to the top three as follows: 13, 10 and eight points. With a win for Verstappen in this scenario, Leclerc may not finish higher than fifth. This is partly due to the point for the fastest lap, which is not awarded in this case.

Then there is the possibility that then there is more than two laps but less than 25 per cent of a race distance. In that case, 6, 4 and 3 points will be handed out to the top three. In that case, it will not be possible for Verstappen to take the world title in Japan and the party will be postponed to the United States Grand Prix anyway. If less than two laps are completed in green conditions, there is officially no race and therefore no points are awarded.