Where is Norris supposed to go if McLaren cannot fix this default?

McLaren fails to perform (again)

Norris is considered one of the great talents in Formula 1, but unlike his contemporaries Charles Leclerc and George Russell, Norris has not yet managed to rake in a win. This has little to do with the Brit's talent, but more with the car he is driving. McLaren has not yet been able to close the gap to the top. Indeed, the gap is getting bigger and bigger.

The problem for McLaren is twofold. On the one hand, it is a customer team of Mercedes and, as a customer team, it is very difficult to beat the supplier. After all, the latter can perfectly tune the engine to its own chassis, where a customer has to make do with the engine it gets. Yet this year, Aston Martin has shown that better performance is still achievable. So it is possible, but not yet at McLaren.

Since the arrival of Andreas Seidl (succeeded by Andrea Stella since 2023) and James Key, there were many positive noises around McLaren. The team climbed out of the slump it was in and even returned to third among constructors in 2020. The next step is top three, but when? The team itself keeps pointing to the new wind tunnel and modifications at the factory, with which it hopes to be competitive from 2024.

Norris will still have a contract by then and will hope McLaren can deliver on this promise, but for now not much has come of it. Looking honestly at the performance of Key, the technical director, it has to be said that he, too, is yet to live up to expectations. The former Toro Rosso technical director designed the 2020 car that was good for P3, but then saw the team sink to P4 and P5 in 2022. In 2023, with the arrival of Aston Martin, that looks like it might even be P6. Where Dan Fallows did manage to take Aston Martin to the podium with a Mercedes engine, Key has not (yet).

Where can Norris go?

Should Norris want to leave, the first question is whether the Brit has an escape clause in his contract. Otherwise, McLaren can hold on to its driver's contract through 2025, although there is little use for an unmotivated driver either. Should Norris have that option, however, the good options are limited.

Red Bull Racing has already completed its line-up for 2024 and that does not seem the best place for Norris either if he wants to become World Champion. Red Bull is formed around Max Verstappen and Norris knows that too. At Ferrari, both drivers are fixed until 2024 and, again, it is the case that Leclerc seems to be firmly in control within the team.

Mercedes seems the most interesting team for Norris, but then he is dependent on a departure of Lewis Hamilton. George Russell does not seem to be going anywhere for now, but with another bad car at his disposal, Hamilton (despite saying otherwise himself) could give up. At Mercedes, Norris would then come alongside Russell, but at Mercedes you cannot yet say that the team revolves around Russell. A gamble Norris could take so that he does join a factory team.

Another factory team is Alpine, but it hasn't managed to step up to the top three for years. It keeps dangling just below and now sees Aston Martin make that step. Besides, Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly are also fixed for 2024, so there does not seem to be an opening there in the short term. The last option is Aston Martin, but Fernando Alonso has a multi-year deal and Lance Stroll a contract for life.

Critical eye on James Key

Outside of a slim chance at Mercedes, there is therefore nothing left for Norris but to make sure McLaren itself makes that step forward. A good step for that would be to tie up an engine supplier for 2026. A deal with Red Bull Powertrains would not be advantageous, as that would require beating Adrian Newey at designing a car. An exclusive partnership with Honda could be much more beneficial in that respect. If people at McLaren are not so quick to criticise this time, it might be able to achieve the same performance with Honda as Red Bull Racing.

Besides an engine, McLaren will also have to look internally. Why does Aston Martin manage to make that move and McLaren does not? Just a new wind tunnel is not going to solve that problem. It's ultimately about people. Those need to step forward and make sure they design a better car for 2024 and improve this year's car as soon as possible. Otherwise, chances are the team's star driver will look a door away.