Analysis | Verstappen gives competition food for thought with long run data
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Red Bull Racing and Max Verstappen look set to dominate the Miami Grand Prix weekend with strong results in both single-lap performance and longer race runs. Ferrari seems to be their closest rivals again, with Mercedes not far behind in Florida. It's looking likely that the Italian team will fall into their usual trap: having a quick car for qualifying, but not a strong race car. The circuit in Miami also highlights the strengths that Mercedes have.
Verstappen wants to hit back
The Miami Grand Prix is another race weekend with the 'normal' build-up of a weekend. So there is plenty of time on Friday for F1 teams to tune the cars for qualifying and the race. For Verstappen, the ideal opportunity to get his car back in the right window after it seemed to fail in Azerbaijan.
Verstappen set the fastest time of the day with 1.27.930 and recorded the fastest time in every sector. It shows the dominance of the RB19, mainly in Verstappen's hands. The Dutchman is 0.385s faster than Carlos Sainz. Charles Leclerc ruins his first lap, to finish nearly half a second off Verstappen in his second run. Perez too, cannot keep up with his teammate. Over one lap, the Mexican is 0.489 behind.
Verstappen creates the biggest gap in the first sector. In the fast succeeding corner combinations, Verstappen is two-tenths faster than the Ferrari drivers and over a tenth faster than his teammate. In the second sector, Verstappen takes advantage of the Honda engine on the straight to also get through the technical section well in the latter part of that sector. Verstappen also keeps his tyres whole over a lap, as Verstappen also gains a tenth in the final sector. Only Sainz and Fernando Alonso limit the damage in that sector to less than a tenth.
Notable absentees are George Russell and Lewis Hamilton. Russell complains about traffic, but both drivers fail to match the times of the Ferraris and Red Bulls in several attempts. Perhaps this is again due to a lower engine setting, as in a long run the team later appears to have the pace.
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Top speed of RB19 is almost unfair
It should no longer be a surprise where the Red Bull's speed comes from. Once on the gas, the RB19 is unbeatable. In their fastest run, Verstappen and Perez each touch the 341 kilometres per hour mark. The competitors are all at least six kilometres per hour short. This straight-line speed makes the difference in the race because with DRS, overtakes can be made. Should Ferrari be able to find just a little more speed over one lap, they will have to defend at 334km/h on the straight which is the same problem they had in Baku. Mercedes, who seemed competitive on the straight in Australia, also comes up short for the time being in Miami with a top speed of 333km/h.
Surprisingly, though, Lando Norris seems to be really keeping up with the top teams over one lap. Red Bull and Ferrari are too fast over one lap, but Norris settles in between the Aston Martins and Mercedes. While top speed has been a concern for McLaren in recent weeks, Norris, at 333 km/h, is not inferior to the drivers of the other Mercedes-powered teams.
At Aston Martin, though, there is an asterisk behind the top speed. Lance Stroll did reach 335km/h, but the Canadian was not the team's fastest over a lap. Alonso, who was a lot more competitive in terms of time, paid the price in drag. Indeed, the Spaniard only reached a top speed of 332km/h. Not a huge difference from his closest rivals, but overtaking will be difficult.
Red Bull: 341km/h
Ferrari: 334km/h
Mercedes: 333km/h
Aston: 332/335km/h*
McLaren: 333km/h
Red Bull supreme in race pace
The RB19 is supreme this year when it comes to race space, and that seems to be the case again in Miami. Although the drivers can only do few laps due to Leclerc's crash, Red Bull's laps are of a very different order to the competition. Leclerc drove 1.33.5 twice on the medium tyre before his crash, while Verstappen recorded 1.32.4, 1.32.5 and 1.32.6 on the same tyre. A second faster than his nearest rival over one lap.
Carlos Sainz seems to be in a bit better shape this weekend, but the Spaniard does his long run initially on the soft tyre. Ferrari hoped to gather more data this way, but still have to make do with less data due to Leclerc's crash. Sainz also failed to match Verstappen's times on soft tyres. Sainz drove between 1.33.0 and 1.33.4.
At Mercedes, after extra attempts for short runs, they went out for the long runs later, but were soon allowed back in due to Leclerc's crash. The first relevant times driven by Hamilton and Russell they only set after the red flag. Hamilton recorded another 1.32.6 and 1.32.7, and Russell comes to a 1.33.1. Both do so on the medium tyre. Verstappen also goes out after the red flag and drives a 1.31.9 twice on the improving track. This puts Max almost a second faster again.
Mercedes' laps do show promise compared to Ferrari and they will also be watching Aston Martin. Alonso came out before the red flag on the hard tyre and drove similar times to Sainz (on medium). After the red flag, Alonso drove one more relevant lap, posting a 1.31.9 time. He did so on the red tyre. Teammate Lance Stroll did not come close to these times.
Then an honourable mention for Lando Norris, who over one lap surprised friend and foe with a sixth fastest time. Norris was slower than Verstappen but faster than Stroll, Hamilton and Russell. As the Briton was ahead of the rest, he also drove more laps for his long run. With 1.33.1 to 1.33.9, it did show that McLaren still just lacks the speed to connect with the sub-top. A dangerous outsider, though, the team does look like one here.
| Verstappen (M) | Perez (M) | Leclerc (M) | Sainz (Z) | Hamilton (M) | Alonso (H) | Norris (M) |
| 1.32.4 | 1.32.1 | 1.33.5 | 1.33.2 | 1.32.6 | 1.33.1 | 1.33.1 |
| 1.32.5 | 1.32.2 | 1.33.5 | 1.33.0 | 1.32.7 | 1.33.4 | 1.33.2 |
| 1.32.6 | 1.33.1 | 1.31.9 (Z) | 1.33.7 | |||
| 1.31.9 | 1.33.4 | 1.33.9 | ||||
| 1.31.9 |
Forecast for the rest of Miami GP
It should be clear that Red Bull are the favourites in Miami and at the moment Verstappen seems to have an edge over his teammate. Verstappen is right on top after his second place in Baku and Perez needs to step up a notch to catch up. Over one lap, Ferrari seems the biggest threat, although it remains to be seen whether Mercedes have the engines fully open.
Pole or not, it is clear from the data from the long runs that Verstappen and Perez will eventually disappear over the horizon. Ferrari are struggling in race pace and that is not getting any easier with Leclerc's crash. Alonso again opted for a remarkable strategy with a long run on the hard and soft tyres. He was competitive on both tyres, but does he have the straight-line speed to stay ahead of the Mercedes drivers?
Norris is a surprising outsider in this group. Over one lap and in terms of top speed the young Briton can keep up, in race pace the MCL60 still came up a little short on Friday. However, the fact that Norris is close is already a big step compared to the start of this season.