Why Max Verstappen's third world title is not his last

First of all, of course, the fact that Verstappen is still only 26 years old plays a part. Only Sebastian Vettel was younger when he won his third Formula 1 world championship. Although Verstappen has stated on several occasions that it is not a certainty that he will continue beyond 2028 - that is when his contract expires - he still has a lot of good years ahead of him to win a fourth title.

The chances of that happening in 2024 are - without anticipating too much - high. Red Bull have interpreted the major rulebook changes that apply from 2022 the best, which is why the rival has been trailing for two seasons. There is a significant chance that a third season will be added to this, as virtually nothing changes to the technical guidelines.

It means Red Bull could build on the RB19's strong design with the RB20. The car Verstappen will get in 2024 is a further development of the current car, which is good news for Max's fans. None of the other (top) teams like Mercedes, Ferrari, Aston Martin and McLaren have shown on a structural basis this year that they can challenge Verstappen. Maybe during a qualifying session here and there, but over an entire season: no.

Focus early on 2024

Red Bull has been able to shift its focus towards 2024 early in the season. Before the summer break, the Milton Keynes-based team was already (virtually) certain of winning the drivers' and constructors' championships. For Red Bull, there was no longer any need to put any more daunting resources into the current year. That means much of the development money that might originally have been intended for 2023 has been pushed forward to 2024.

Things are different for Mercedes and Ferrari. They are still in a fierce battle for second place in the constructors' championship. The difference between a P2 and P3 is many millions of euros in prize money and so for these two teams the focus is even more on 2023 than it is for Red Bull. For McLaren - which got up to speed late this year - they will also continue to develop until the final races.

Competition not getting closer

Remarkably, we cannot say that by developing longer, the competition is already nipping at Red Bull's heels as a result. The RB19 is so dominant that rivals need many extra updates to get anywhere near the Red Bull car. It gives the Austrian formation some much-needed air towards 2024.

Should Ferrari do get there right at the start of the season in 2024, it remains to be seen whether the Italians can keep it up for a full season. In 2022, it won several races at the start of the season, but ended up overwhelmingly losing the development battle with Red Bull. And in 2024, will Mercedes be right for the first time? In the past two years, Toto Wolff' s team hit the mark pretty hard.

Only from 2026 may be a different picture

For 2024, Verstappen's chances of a world title are good, for 2025 the same is true. Not until 2026 will Formula 1 undergo major regulation changes again, including completely new engine regulations. From that season, Red Bull will drive its own engines for the first time, developed together with their new partner, Ford. Until then, Red Bull will continue to compete for world titles anyway, that seems almost certain.