Sainz turns down offer from Audi and targets Verstappen's seat

Ever since Audi made their entry into Formula 1, Carlos Sainz has been linked with a seat with this team. Carlos Sainz Senior won the Dakar Rally with Audi, so the bond between the brand and the family is strong. Yet for Sainz Junior to make the switch to Sauber as early as 2025 is no simple sum.

Sainz has to pack his bags at Ferrari at the end of 2024. So the Spaniard does have to look for a new team, but the question is whether Sauber is the right choice for Sainz at the moment. Sainz already won a Grand Prix with Ferrari in 2024 and was also the only non-Red Bull driver to win a GP in 2023. Moving to the team that currently ranks last among constructors will feel like a very big step backwards.

How much time does Sainz have left?

While Nico Hulkenberg did sign the deal at Audi, an announcement of a deal for Sainz was still outstanding. Spanish media reported on Thursday that Sainz has not accepted Audi's offer. Sainz would rather wait his chance at Red Bull Racing or Mercedes, where he hopes to be competitive as early as 2025.

In doing so, however, Sainz is taking a big risk. GPblog has learnt that Audi has no intention of announcing Hulkenberg's teammate anytime soon, but if Sainz has really turned down the offer, Audi will also look further afield. A driver like Esteban Ocon or Sergio Perez could then also just come into the picture.

Sainz is, therefore, playing with fire, as he is not the number one candidate at either Mercedes or Red Bull Racing. Toto Wolff has already set his sights on Max Verstappen, wanting the Dutchman as George Russell's new teammate. If Wolff does not get that done, Andrea Kimi Antonelli also seems to have more claim to that seat than Sainz.

Why is Sainz taking a risk?

Sainz still has the best chance of getting a seat at Red Bull Racing, but even that is far from certain. Sergio Perez's contract is up at the end of the season, but does Sainz want to become Verstappen's teammate again? Probably not. Of course, Sainz would like to become Verstappen's replacement. Then he has a great chance of winning the world title in 2025, but is he the number one candidate for it?

Although Alexander Albon has a contract at Williams, the Thai still seems more likely to have a chance at that seat than Sainz. Albon's nationality gives him an edge with Red Bull's big boss Chalerm Yoovidhya. If Christian Horner sees his star driver leave for Mercedes, there is a good chance he will please his boss with a driver from Thailand.

Although Sainz is on Red Bull Racing's and Mercedes' radar, he is not the dyed-in-the-wool No 1 in either scenario, so the Spaniard is playing high stakes by turning down Audi's offer and waiting for those two teams. After all, if he does not get a seat there and Audi is already supplied with drivers, the only places left are at Williams, Alpine and Haas.