This F1 driver is statistically most likely to win the Australian GP

General

Formula 1 statistics regarding the Australian Grand Prix
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Last update at 08:03
  • Savannah Lenz

The Australian Grand Prix has been a staple on the Formula 1 calendar for the past 20+ years. After a short break in 2020 - 2022, the Albert Park track rejoined the line-up and has provided fast racing and good entertainment. But statistically, who is most likely to win the first race of the 2025 season?

Since 2000, only six teams have won the 23 races in Melbourne, five teams if you dissolve Brawn GP into Mercedes. There have been 13 different race winners, with Michael Schumacher winning the most (4). Schumacher won all four with Ferrari, while the most decorated winners were tied at 3, Sebastian Vettel and Jenson Button

Most decorated constructor

Out of the 13 winners, eight (62%) are no longer racing in Formula 1. Leaving only five (38%) active F1 drivers on the grid who have won at Albert Park. Three of those five drivers have won world championships: Max Verstappen, Lewis Hamilton, and Fernando Alonso. The only two who haven’t won championships are Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc, both of whom won with Ferrari. 

Counting all the constructor wins at Albert Park since the 2000 Formula 1 season, Ferrari has the highest win rate, with 10 out of 23 races. That gives them a win percentage of 43%. After Ferrari, Mercedes is the second highest ranking constructor with five. McLaren has had three wins, and Red Bull Racing has had two. Red Bull Racing won once with Vettel and once with Verstappen. Vettel’s other two wins happened during his time at Ferrari. Of the five active drivers, Hamilton has two wins compared to everyone else's. That gives him a 33% win rate compared to the six races won by the five active drivers.  The last time Hamilton won the Australian Grand Prix was in 2015. However, Hamilton is now with Ferrari. As he has the most wins out of the active drivers and Ferrari has the most as a constructor, could he start the season with a win, thus ending Verstappen’s winning streak? 

Statistically most likely to win

Statistically, Ferrari stands the best chance at winning the 2025 Australian Grand Prix. Leclerc and Hamilton have a combined rate of 50% (3/6). Only Red Bull Racing, Williams, and Aston Martin have an Australian Grand Prix winner on their hands. The only time Williams won at Albert Park was in the first year that it hosted the Australian Grand Prix, 1996. Aston Martin has not won there, with their highest result being third in 2023. 

McLaren ended the season off on a dominant note. Williams now has Sainz (the 2024 winner). Red Bull Racing is sure to have learned from their mistakes last year. However, regarding the actual race results of previous years, Ferrari could have the strongest trio (Leclerc, Hamilton and Ferrari as a constructor) to manage a win. 

With only 31 days until the Australian Grand Prix, only time will tell who takes home the trophy after the lights go out.

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