Column | Mercedes will once again outsmart Red Bull and Verstappen in 2021

Red Bull chasing the facts

For the past seven years, it has been Mercedes that has been striking the clock in Formula 1. Red Bull Racing were dominant at times between 2010 and 2013, but never as supreme as Mercedes would become with the new engines.

Mercedes have won every title since 2014, and no team really came close. In 2017 and 2018, Sebastian Vettel made it somewhat exciting for the driver's title, but that battle was also decided races before the end of the season. Not a single team have really been a contender for the constructors' title.

Red Bull Racing have been lagging behind since 2014. Renault turned out not to have things in order with the new engines and were immediately behind. Red Bull, therefore, pointed to the engines but did not always manage it properly. Certainly, in recent years, the chassis often fell short of Mercedes.

The arrival of Perez

In 2021, Red Bull Racing wants to take the step to the top, and with one move they have shown that they really mean it. The arrival of Sergio Perez is unique. An older and experienced driver who is not part of the Red Bull program. Red Bull Racing found Alexander Albon and Pierre Gasly too light and intervened.

Perez's arrival is a smart move by Red Bull. It does not mean that Red Bull is now directly competing for the title, but a teammate who can help Max Verstappen in the fight with Mercedes is very welcome. The Dutchman cannot do it on his own, and that was the case in recent years.

New aerodynamic regulations

However, you will not get there with only good drivers, because the car still determines in Formula 1 whether a driver is successful or not. Honda has brought forward one last update for the last year in Formula 1, but whether that is enough to close the gap to Mercedes is of course still the question.

Adrian Newey's team will also be tested again because in recent years the team has also lagged behind Mercedes in terms of chassis and aerodynamics. Can Newey finally provide a unique design again in 2021?

The biggest test for both teams is to simplify the floor and the diffuser. There, both teams lose a lot of downforce and they have to try to find it elsewhere. With Newey's high-rake concept, the floor and the diffuser have proven to be essential components in the past. Will Newey find a detour or will he fall behind again?

The start of the Formula 1 season

Yet there is perhaps one more thing that is most important to Red Bull. Prior to 2020, people called very loudly that they would be there this year at the start of the season. They had to if they wanted to compete for the world title. However, there were (not for the first time ...) correlation problems which caused the start of the season to be quite disappointing.

At the end of the season, Red Bull Racing came out on top with pole and a win for Verstappen in Abu Dhabi, and before that results showed that Red Bull was really there. In the meantime, however, Mercedes had been working on the car for 2021 for months, so to what extent was Red Bull's profit really catching up, or more of a standstill at Mercedes?

It was therefore a scenario that has been seen more often in recent years. Red Bull starts terribly, catches up during the season, but comes too short to overtake Mercedes. Mercedes will start working on the car for the following year halfway through the year, and so the cycle repeats itself again and again.

The forecast for 2021

2021 should be the most exciting year since the hybrid era. With Sergio Perez, Red Bull Racing have a driver who can deal with the rear end and manage the tyres to the maximum. The same driving style as Verstappen, and with that a unique duo seems to have been found.

However, 2021 will come too soon. Mercedes' lead is simply still too big. Where Perez will first have to get used to the car, the Hamilton-Bottas duo is already attuned to each other. GPblog predicts a second-place finish in the drivers' championship and perhaps make it more difficult for Hamilton.

Why not? Actually very simple. The past few years have shown that the last race of the season says nothing about the first race of the new season. It's safe to assume that Mercedes have again found something to stay one step ahead of the competition.

This article was written and originally published by Tim on the Dutch edition of GPblog.com.