What to expect from Verstappen, Mercedes and Ferrari at the winter test

During the test you always get an impression of the teams that have found the speed. But there are always teams who take it easy, or do an ultra-fast lap on very little fuel. Based on the winter tests of the last three years we might be able to give some meaning to the lap times we will see in the coming days.

Verstappen does his own thing

Max Verstappen is a good example of a driver whose lap times during winter testing say almost nothing. In both 2018 and 2019, he was not found in the top half of the final standings after two weeks of testing. Especially in 2019, when he completely ignored the soft tyre. You can't really call that sandbagging though, because the longruns already showed that Red Bull would be close to the fastest times.

Last year, Verstappen set fastest lap times on the second softest tyre, but it was clear that Mercedes would probably be dominant in 2020. Verstappen would end up being Mercedes' only challenger that season, so in that sense it was a fair prediction of the balance of power.

Sandbagging with Toto

Verstappen is doing his own thing, but there are some teams who are really sandbagging. Mercedes in particular has often been accused of this. In both 2018 and 2019, it seemed that they would have a formidable competitor in Ferrari, only to beat everyone by a landslide at qualifying in Melbourne. Toto Wolff's cautious statements in particular were not received with thanks at the time.

Ferrari and Alpine are pushing too hard

At the same time you could say that Ferrari have had a knack of not living up to their test results in recent years. Only last year was this not the case. At that time they claimed during the test that they were deliberately running a bit slower but before the season had even started they had to retract their claim. If Ferrari is slow during the next test you can say, based on previous years, that they are indeed slow.

Renault/Alpine is another team that can make its speed during the winter test look better than it actually is. The last three years they have been consistently in the top five with at least one car, but in Australia they were still a long way behind the top teams.

Of course, these teams could do things differently this season, but it's something to keep in mind if Carlos Sainz suddenly leads the timesheet this weekend. Also keep an eye on the number of laps driven. The Mercedes team will be the yardstick. If a team doesn't come close to their lap count, you know they are either struggling or having even bigger problems.