F1 winter test conclusions: Mercedes are vulnerable, smile at Verstappen

Engine change easier than expected

Prior to the winter test in Bahrain a big question mark hung over McLaren. The team had to install the Mercedes engine in the new car but had to give up tokens to develop the car further. With few test days, it is also very difficult to get that engine installed properly.

However, for a team that has only had one day of testing to get the car and engine ready for the start of the season, McLaren was in a good position. The test went without any major problems. The team didn't drive the most laps, but the fact that with 327 laps, they still left Aston Martin and Mercedes behind, showed the quality of the team.

The body language of the team also spoke volumes. Lando Norris and Daniel Ricciardo walked around the paddock with a lot of confidence, and the same can be said of team principal Andreas Seidl. They will not have the illusion that they can attack the top, but the engine change appears to be easier than expected.

Mercedes is vulnerable after all

The big loser of this winter test is of course Mercedes. The German team has dominated Formula 1, and also the winter test, for the last seven years. Mercedes rarely topped the list with the fastest lap times, but always drove the most laps. However, this year the team had problems and drove the least amount of laps.

This hurts, even more, this year because with only three days of testing, the teams already have much less data than before. Mercedes don't seem to understand the car yet, after the new regulations caused much of the downforce to disappear. Where Red Bull's high-rake now seems to be working, Mercedes suddenly falls back.

In addition to the troubled rear of the car, there were also problems with the gearbox. It is unclear whether the gearbox has been changed to suit the rear of the car, but one thing is for sure: Mercedes can be beaten this year.

A copy is not always ideal

The fact that Mercedes was in trouble was a big problem for one team. Aston Martin benefited from its partnership with Mercedes last year when Racing Point's car led to a couple of podiums, a pole and even a win. This season however Aston Martin starts with big problems.

The car is again to a large extent a copy of Mercedes and so the team is also struggling with the same problems as Mercedes. The speed wasn't there, but more importantly, the reliability wasn't. The gearbox that Aston Martin bought from Mercedes also caused problems for the green team.

Tsunoda ready for Formula 1

Yuki Tsunoda had impressed all weekend with his flawless performance in the winter test, but the eyes of the competition were only truly opened when Yuki went flat out on Sunday afternoon. In the team's so-called 'performance runs', Tsunoda was on the limit and topped the timesheet a number of times.

That Yuki can be fast in a training session we already knew from Formula 2 and 3, but that he would be so fast in the winter test nobody expected. The Japanese driver seems ready for the 2021 Formula 1 season. He's been prepared as best as possible by Red Bull, but also seems to be doing everything he can to make this a success.

Red Bull Racing's best chance

Based on the winter test we can't say that Red Bull Racing has the best chance in 2021. Mercedes is still the favourite, but the problems at Mercedes give Max Verstappen 's team a unique chance to win the world title.

Apart from Mercedes' problems, Red Bull has perhaps its best winter test since the hybrid era. Verstappen set the fastest lap of the weekend, and with 369 laps, the team went around the track far more often than big rival Mercedes.

You can be positive based on the times and the number of laps, but it's the RB16B that's particularly impressive. Where the 2020 car seemed almost uncontrollable, the RB16B is a perfect fit. Verstappen and Perez can throw the car into the corners without the rear end sliding away. The contrast with Mercedes couldn't be bigger.

The best indicator for the winter test is the body language and especially that of Max Verstappen. The Dutchman was calm and relaxed as he always is, but this year was different. He smiled a bit more often, his chest was a bit more forward and there was a twinkle in his eye. It may be a vain hope, but 2021 looks like Red Bull and Verstappen's best chance of a world title.