Preview Analysis | Will the Imola circuit favour Ferrari or Red Bull?

Red Bull v Ferrari so far

Although Mercedes and George Russell are Ferrari's nearest rivals in terms of points on the table, Red Bull have almost matched the Italian team in terms of performance. Max Verstappen and Red Bull Racing have been let down by poor reliability. If that is solved, then expect them to challenge at a lot of circuits. There's also a popular paddock theory suggesting Mercedes have a beast of a car once they solve the porpoising issues. 

In Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Australia, Red Bull have been on top in straight-line speed. But the Ferrari car has the upper hand when it comes to the medium/slow-speed corners. After looking at the telemetries, it's clear that the Ferrari drivers have more downforce and tractions as they can get on the power quicker at the exit of the corner. 

Although the final three corners of the Melbourne circuit are medium/slow corners, Leclerc was able to overcome a deficit of almost two-tenths, and secure pole by almost three tenths. Whilst this supports the strengths of Ferrari in these corners, it also hints that the Ferrari car can manage its tyres better. 

In Imola

 

 

 

 

 

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Tyre management is very important in Imola. The circuit is narrow which makes overtaking very difficult. This in turn makes the strategy decisions even more important because a correctly timed undercut could be the difference when the chequered flag drops. At 549 meters, Imola has one of the longest pit lanes of any F1 track on the 2022 calendar. According to Mercedes, teams spend an average of 24.7 seconds in the pits.

Teams will need to be clever when they pit because they lose so much time. This leans towards a one-stop race, but there's a huge advantage should a driver be able to pit under some kind of safety car. This is expected to play into the hands of Ferrari ever so slightly. It also makes Friday qualifying more important. 

Sector one is a very high paced sector. From the last corner on the lap to turn two, there is a 15 second flatout period which will really drop into the hands of Red Bull unless Ferrari have some straight-line performance upgrades. Verstappen and Sergio Perez will be looking to maximise their chances for the rest of the lap in qualifying by getting a good clean exit out of turn 16. This section of the track will also be important for Red Bull if the two teams exchange a wheel-to-wheel battle. Ferrari might get close in sector two, but it's all about whether the Red Bull cars can keep/gain an advantage on this long straight.

But Ferrari should gain a lot of time back through the twister sector two. There is a sequence of medium-speed corners where Ferrari will be expected to gain here because of their better traction and therefore quicker acceleration. Sector three will be where the race/pole position will be won or lost. It's will be very tight between the two teams, and perhaps Ferrari's better tyre performance in qualifying could swing pole position towards them. 

In the rain

Rain is forecast across the weekend. Friday evening qualifying looks likely to be on a wet track, Saturday and Sunday are expected to be drier. The only wet running with the 2022 cars took place in a 15-minute window during the first pre-season test. This is when they artificially watered the Barcelona circuit to test the Pirelli tyres. It's unknown who the rain will favour with the new regulations, but with higher rooster tails it's expected to allow drivers to get closer to each other.