Dilemma for Vasseur: is Leclerc really the ideal front-runner for Ferrari?

Challenger to Vettel

By the end of 2018, Sergio Marchionne had seen enough. Just before he passed away, Ferrari's top man made it clear that Kimi Raikkonen must leave. Not because the Finn necessarily performed poorly, but front-runner Sebastian Vettel failed to challenge Lewis Hamilton for the title for the second time in a row. Instead, the young talent Leclerc was brought to Maranello to really test Vettel for once.

Marchionne passed away and didn't see the results, but he was right. Leclerc proved to be faster in qualifying and races than Vettel in his first season, and he widened that gap in 2020. It led to the departure of Vettel, who may have felt that coming before it happened. He also knew he was no longer the undisputed number one, but his dismissal was still somewhat of a shock to him.

Whereas Leclerc impressed greatly in his first seasons as Vettel's challenger, the Monegasque driver was expected to carry the team from 2021. And then, with the signing of Carlos Sainz, an ambitious driver was brought in, but according to many, a clear number two. Sainz had done fine at McLaren but had previously been beaten at Renault by Nico Hulkenberg. Not a CV for someone to lead Ferrari.

Sainz is closer than expected

But surprisingly, Sainz scored the most points on behalf of Ferrari in 2021. Leclerc suffered from problems throughout the season, but many driver errors hindered his season. As a result, Sainz was consistent and scored a few more points. But Leclerc can then point to the qualifying duel (13-9) and the average difference in qualifying (0.055s in Leclerc's favour), where he bested Sainz, but there is no significant difference.

In 2022, Leclerc seemed to be pinning the throttle more, getting more out of the Ferrari car. Sainz also missed several big chances at the start of the season and quickly let a title-contending opportunity slip out of his hands, as Leclerc started particularly strongly. The Monegasque driver was better than Sainz in all areas, albeit minimally. In points (308-246), the qualifying duel (15-7) and the average qualifying difference (0.092s), the difference was in Leclerc's favour. However, the difference was not as big as expected for a number-one driver.

The minute difference is remarkable, but the Ferrari management will also have been concerned about Leclerc's mistakes. In the battle for the World Championship, Leclerc lost points because of Ferrari's mistakes, but also because of many driver errors caused by himself. These are errors that Max Verstappen did not make (and does not to this day), which allowed the Dutchman to celebrate his title as early as Japan after Leclerc fell well behind at the start. After Vettel was no match for Hamilton, Ferarri have not got the best driver to get that little extra out of the car.

With the arrival of old friend Vasseur, you would think all excuses for Leclerc in 2023 would be gone, as he now has a team boss who is 100 per cent behind him. But things are going downhill for Leclerc. The 25-year-old driver has made mistake after mistake in the first few weekends. One excuse could be that the car is not good enough, but then to make so many mistakes...

Not only is Leclerc making mistakes, but he is also allowing Sainz to get closer in their internal duel again. After seven weekends, Sainz has amassed more points, and the Spaniard is only narrowly losing the qualifying duel (4-3). The average difference between their respective qualifying laps is also smaller than in previous seasons. In the first qualifying session, Leclerc had an average lead of only 0.052s.

Who can challenge Verstappen?

In that respect, Ferrari have a problem. Sainz and Leclerc both still have contracts until 2024, and Vasseur is keen to extend Leclerc's contract because he sees a future champion in Leclerc. But the question is whether that is justified, given his previous performances. The speed is there over one lap, but he still makes too many mistakes over a full season.

Meanwhile, there are all sorts of rumours about Carlos Sainz. The Spaniard is said to be no longer happy at Ferrari, something you hear frequently in the F1 paddock. Sainz is mainly linked to Audi (now Alfa Romeo), where Andreas Seidl and James Key, two acquaintances of his, are at the helm. Besides, Audi is also the brand with which Carlos Sainz Senior has been very successful.

For Vasseur, a tough choice follows Sainz's likely departure. As a top team, you want a clear number one to drive the team forward and a competitive number two to collect as many points as possible among the constructors. However, if you want to extend Leclerc, the question is in which role you place him.

Given the history of Vasseur and Leclerc, it would not be unheard of for Leclerc to be the number one driver at Ferarri. If Vasseur really supports the young driver and build a team around him, Leclerc may be able to replicate his F2 performance over a full year in F1. It is a risk because so far in his F1 career, Leclerc has not managed to do so.

There is no real alternative for Ferrari either, as who is arguably better and good enough to challenge Verstappen over an entire season? The link with Lewis Hamilton is not crazy from the Italian angle, but the Brit himself says it is a matter of time before he renews his contract with Mercedes.

Of the younger generation, Pierre Gasly, Esteban Ocon and Alexander Albon have shown too little to say they will perform at Ferrari, although all three could be good second drivers for the team from Maranello. But for the biggest talents, Ferrari's eyes will (again) be on McLaren.

With Lando Norris, McLaren have a good candidate in-house. Norris is fixed until 2025, but you can hardly imagine that he does not have an escape clause in his contract. A top team like Ferrari would be a nice upgrade for him, but is Norris really an improvement over Leclerc? Norris is also fast over one lap and has improved in race pace, but has he proved that he can be better than Leclerc? It is also hard to assess because Norris has never been in a team to fight for wins, so mistakes are less noticeable.

Another option for Ferrari is Norris' teammate Oscar Piastri. Speaking to GPblog, Helmut Marko dropped his name when it came to big talents that Red Bull failed to bring in. The Australian is considered a huge talent but already has a lot behind him after his controversial move from Alpine to McLaren. He impressed as a rookie but is not yet faster than Norris.

Who will be Ferrari's number one driver?

For Vasseur, it is an important period ahead. Many staff members have left, and no new technical leader has taken their place. There also needs to be clarity among the drivers, as Sainz is likely to leave. But how Vasseur wants to shape his driver line-up in the future is another question he will have to answer.

If Vasseur does not consider Leclerc good enough as a front-runner, Norris and Hamilton are the only serious candidates. With Norris, the question is whether he is really better than Leclerc, while with Hamilton, the question is whether, at his age, he can really help Ferrari to a world title. Ultimately, that has to be the goal for Vasseur. After all, his predecessor was sacked after a second-place finish.

In that respect, it makes more sense for Vasseur to put all his money on Leclerc. It is a gamble, given the performances of the past few years, but Leclerc does have sheer speed, something Ferarri need to keep a hold of. He just seems to need some coaching to perform at his peak for a whole weekend and a whole season. If Vasseur can manage that, you might get a repeat of the Verstappen-Leclerc rivalry from karting.

Besides Leclerc, Vasseur also needs a second man, like Sergio Perez is for Verstappen, preferably a driver with the necessary experience, but just not fast enough to get in Leclerc's way. A constant factor that Leclerc could also learn from, as undoubtedly that is the biggest weakness for the Monegasque.

In terms of consistency, Gasly and Ocon are somewhat less reliable. Albon is, but does he really fit in with Ferrari? In that respect, there are plenty of experienced options on the market. Daniel Ricciardo is out there looking for another seat for 2024, or there is also Nico Hulkenberg, who has returned and is performing well at Haas. Perhaps picking Sergio Perez himself away from Red Bull Racing could be the move Ferarri need. For those first two, both are only too happy to settle for a role as second drivers if they can race for such a team. For Perez, Ferrari could be another nice addition to his CV, having been a Ferrari junior in the past, and while at Red Bull, it is quite clear to him that a world title is not on the cards.

In Formula 1 at the moment, the question is what you sign up for as a driver. Apart from Vasseur, there is no single leader to be seen at Ferrari. Something needs to be done quickly to fix drivers for the coming years.