Bookmakers PANIC as Formula 1 landscape changes drastically

Who is the favourite to win the Constructors World Championship?

Red Bull Racing had come off the back of one of the most (if not the most) dominant seasons in Formula 1 history. Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez combined had won 22 out of the 23 Grands Prix. Verstappen smashed records that will take some beating, including a 10-race winning streak between the 2023 Miami Grand Prix and the 2023 Italian Grand Prix (inclusive).

After a poor Singapore event, Verstappen started another streak of wins that would last until the 2024 Saudi Arabian Grand Prix and threatened to beat his previous successful run. In fact, an early retirement in the 2024 Australian Grand Prix ended his hopes of matching that 10-race winning run. Despite a few bumps in the road, Sergio Perez also got some strong results and comfortably finished second in the 2023 Drivers' World Championship. As a result, the bookies had Red Bull as clear favourites for the 2024 Constructors title. This included BetFred who marked Red Bull as 3/10 favourites. McLaren were a distant second at 11/2. 

This feeling was replicated within the Formula 1 paddock itself. Carlos Sainz made his feelings clear and listed Red Bull as the clear favourite. "Obviously, Red Bull and Verstappen are clear favourites for this year's title because of the advantage they had last year and potentially how early they could start developing their 2024 car. So I think they're clear favourites," Sainz told GPblog and other outlets.

Formula 1 has since been tipped on its head. Red Bull is no longer dominating the sport. Verstappen is still picking up podiums (and sometimes wins), but Sergio Perez is not getting the desired results. Who leads is now much more confusing. Mercedes have won three of the last four races, though McLaren seems to be a little bit more consistent overall. On tracks that suit the Italians, Ferrari can also challenge. The consistent factor from McLaren appears to be putting them in the correct positions more often, and the Championship standings also reflect that. 

The gap is now 42 points, a deficit that can be overturned during one single Grand Prix weekend. Anything can happen with 10 Grands Prix weekends remaining (three of which are sprint weekends). But the bookmakers have switched entirely. With the aforementioned bookmakers, McLaren are now favourite at 8/13, with Red Bull dropping back to 13/10.

What about the Drivers Championship?

But in the drivers' championship, the bookmakers don't think Verstappen will lose his advantage of 78 points. He is still comfortably favourite, at 2/11, with Lando Norris back at 15/4. However, interestingly, the picture is different at the next race in The Netherlands. 

Verstappen's dominance was so great (and the same happened during Hamilton's dominant era) that some bookmakers changed their markets and removed Verstappen from the results. That still happens in some cases, but there's a lot of uncertainty over who is favourite for the individual Grands Prix. Some bookies have their level, and some have Norris slightly ahead. But it's terrible news for Perez, who sits back at 40/1 to win the Dutch Grand Prix. That is simply the difference in the bookmakers' confidence in the constructors championship.