Tech Preview: Why McLaren have chance to capitalise on Red Bull in Dutch GP

1. The weather conditions and cold temperatures 

Starting with the weather, according to weather.com, the chances of rain are very low both for Friday and Sunday, but there’s a 70% chance of rain on Saturday, which could affect the way teams set up their cars for qualifying and (inevitably) also for the race. 

Low temperatures (21-22 °C) are expected throughout the weekend, and this could impact cars’ performance, as seen in the first half of the season. Many cars behave better with lower temperatures, such as Mercedes’ W15 and McLaren’s MCL38. The cooler conditions should help these cars keep tyre temperatures under better control during qualifying and the race. 

From a technical point of view, if rain falls during qualifying, that could have a big impact on the set-up choices: although the race is going to be dry, teams will be forced to increase the ride height a little bit with water on track, losing a bit of downforce from the Venturi channels and, thus, performance. It’ll be quite interesting to see which teams will be forced to raise the car more (mainly to avoid bouncing issues). 

Beyond this aspect, all teams will adopt a high downforce set-up around here, so the rain should exploit cars’ ability to generate temperature into the softer wet tyres, which could give a crucial advantage during qualifying. 

2. The mechanical set-up 

Another aspect that could complicate teams’ work is the nature of the track: since it is located next to the sea, a lot of dust and sand usually appears, making the surface a bit slippery. Moreover, the wavy nature of the layout and the two banked corners will stress the mechanical system of the F1 cars (both suspensions and chassis). 

For all these reasons, teams will have to adopt a very balanced mechanical set-up around Zandvoort, soft enough to make the car take the bumps on the asphalt but also stiff enough to make the car stable through fast corners such as turns 7 and 8. However, the presence of very slow chicanes and hairpins like turns 10, 11, and 12 will require a quite soft set-up longitudinally to have very good traction and not kill the rear tyres during qualifying. 

Furthermore, due to the high loads on all tyres (mainly generated by the bankings), Pirelli have decided to bring the three hardest compounds to the Dutch Grand Prix (C1, C2, C3), and this will affect the set-up too: even though the hardest compounds should not degrade too much under lateral loads (and thus should guarantee better stability of the aero-mechanical platform in fast corners), it’ll be crucial to look after them especially in the middle sector to make them last during the race. 

The circuit's medium abrasiveness, the asphalt's evolution, and the lower temperatures should push teams to adopt the softer compounds C2 and C3 during the race, probably with a two-stop strategy. Still, a lot will depend on the weather conditions and temperature on Sunday. 

3. The importance of qualifying

Last but not least, another crucial aspect that must be considered is the difficulty of overtaking around this track, which gives even more importance to qualifying performance. 

Despite the long stretch from the exit of the last corner to Turn 1 (where DRS is available during the race), overtaking is still very challenging, as the twisty middle sector makes following another car extremely tough. 

Already in the last few races, it was possible to notice how difficult it has become for a car to follow another car (due to the dirty outwash slipstream produced by these cars). Thus, on such a tight layout, qualifying will be more important than ever. 

From this point of view, it could be a three-way fight between McLaren, Mercedes and Red Bull, even though the rain could throw all the plans into disarray and make everything even more exciting. 

Which car will be the quickest around Zandvoort?  

Having made all these premises and looking at the last few weekends of racing, it will be extremely hard to make predictions, but McLaren will be the car to beat this weekend. The MCL38 has been the most versatile and complete car from Miami onwards: it should suit this high downforce track, thanks to its ability to generate a lot of downforce from the bodywork and the Venturi channels. Its capacity to look after the tyres over the race distance will also greatly impact Sunday's race. Moreover, the lack of long straights where efficiency is needed will favour the Woking’s team car's ability to be very quick around tight and twisty layouts (as shown in Budapest). 

Moving onto Red Bull, a lot will depend on the basic set-up the Milton Keynes engineers will come up with on Friday FP1. If the set-up proves to be quite good, they can work from that and challenge the two McLaren cars, at least with Verstappen. However, the weekend will be difficult if they struggle to develop a good set-up during Friday’s practice sessions. 

The new engine cover and sidepod introduced in Hungary should make another appearance this weekend. They have been designed specifically for high-downforce circuits. These components should help increase the amount of downforce generated by the rear end of the car and should also favour heat dissipation, even though lower temperatures will reduce the magnitude of that problem.

Mercedes' performance will be a big question mark this weekend. Three wins in the last four races should be enough to consider the W15 a great challenger to the MCL38, but the truth is that McLaren’s car is still a little bit in front in terms of pure pace (both in qualifying and in the race) over the Brackley’s team car. A lot will also depend on how the W15 adapts to the conditions: the cooler temperatures and the Zandvoort layout should be a big help for Mercedes, but the ability to keep the tyre temperatures under control will play a big role. 

During Friday’s FP1, the team is expected to test the upgrades that didn’t work in Spa: the new floor and diffuser introduced in the last race before the summer break caused many porpoising issues in the high speed (with an evident loss in performance) and were set apart to avoid balance issues during the rest of the Belgian weekend. It’ll be interesting to see whether the new parts will work on a very different layout, especially if they lead to the improvement hoped for. 

It’ll be an interesting weekend for Ferrari: despite Leclerc's great pole position in Belgium, Ferrari proved to be the fourth team in the leading group over the last few races. After solving the proposed issues related to the Barcelona upgrade (which took a couple of races), the SF-24 proved to be a well-balanced car, but it was simply slower than competitors. 

For this reason, it’s difficult to make predictions on the Maranello team’s possible performance for the Dutch Grand Prix, even though the track should suit the SF-24 quite well. A big package of upgrades (the last of the season) is expected between Monza and Singapore, and it’ll be crucial for them to make it work immediately if they want to come back fighting at the top as they did in the first few races of this season. This package will also have a big impact on the development of the 2025 car, as foundations for next year’s car will be laid on the SF-24's latest development.