Steiner does not see Verstappen leaving Red Bull: Justified or not?

Should Verstappen decide to look for elsewhere after next season, a number of teams will be eliminated in advance. Naturally, he will not then start working for teams in the middle or rear, such as Alpine, Haas, Racing Bulls, Williams, Audi and Cadillac. Aston Martin, too, are currently a midfield team, but it is already clear the British outfit would be keen to bring in Verstappen.

Aston Martin already at the top?

Reportedly, Aston Martin have no less than £1 billion to tempt Verstappen. Should Verstappen base his choices purely on money, then Aston Martin are surely the party he would like to go and do business with. But performance-wise, the British probably have a long way to go before the team is a serious contender for wins and championships.

While it is true that Adrian Newey has been brought in to help the team take a final step forward, the influence the British designer can have on the 2026 car is likely to be limited - after all, Newey does not start work until March. It is extremely uncertain that Aston Martin will compete at the front in 2026. And if they were not, Verstappen would be driving around in the middle of the pack. So would leaving Red Bull for Aston Martin be an improvement? Besides, if Aston Martin do manage to build a top car, the Dutchman could still join in 2027.

Ferrari and McLaren don't have the money?

Steiner also argues that McLaren and Ferrari are probably not waiting for Verstappen. That is a justifiable assumption, partly from a financial point of view. Ferrari has spent many tens of millions on Hamilton and Leclerc. If the Italian want to get rid of either of them before 2026, it is bound to cost a fortune. Moreover, Verstappen will probably have to pay a fee to Red Bull, plus the Dutchman has to be given a hefty salary as well.

McLaren have Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri under contract, with the latter expected to win a world title one day. Certainly, McLaren are not likely to trade Piastri for Verstappen - even if he is currently the best F1 driver. Besides the financial aspect - as with Ferrari - there is also the question of whether Verstappen will fit into the culture of the so-called 'papaya-rules'? That seems doubtful.

Mercedes the only option according to Steiner

Steiner thinks Mercedes could possibly be the only option for Verstappen. Indeed George Russell's contract expires after next season and it remains to be seen whether youngster Andrea Kimi Antonelli can meet the high expectations. Team principal Toto Wolff is an outspoken fan of Verstappen and would have liked to have contracted him for next season. Should the opportunity arise to bring in the Dutchman after all, the Austrian will surely try to do so.

In recent years, Mercedes have not had a car that can consistanly compete for wins. Will the Germans succeed in 2026? Given the history of the successful team, there is a good chance that Mercedes will get the new generation of F1 cars right. Add to that the permanently powerful power unit they can in their cars, and Mercedes could just be a logical destination for Verstappen.

But why leave, when there are so many uncertainties? It is possible that Red Bull, in particular, also have the right approach for 2026, although it remains to be seen how the self-developed Red Bull Powertrain performs against rival power units. Listening carefully to Steiner's words, he says it may be best for Verstappen to wait for 2026 and should Red Bull not excel with the new cars, then still see how Mercedes or possibly Aston Martin fare.

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