McLaren is Suzuka favourite, but everyone is watching Red Bull and Ferrari

17:30, 01 Apr

byLudo van Denderen

Max Verstappen has felt completely at home at the Suzuka circuit having won the Japanese Grand Prix three years in a row, but a victory this time around is far from guaranteed.

Even on one of his favourite tracks, Verstappen is an underdog as McLaren's strong start makes it the logical winner of the third round of the Formula 1 season.

Where it was earlier predicted that the Sunday of the Japanese Grand Prix would likely be wet, it now appears that it will remain completely dry.

Verstappen has impressed in the wet here before and any rainfall could make him the favourite for success, but on a dry surface, everything is different.

McLaren has a good feeling heading to Japan

Following a convincing victory in China to add to the Australian win, McLaren has gained a lot of confidence to take to Suzuka, with Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri likely to take honours in Japan.

But don't underestimate Verstappen after - according to him - a successful technical meeting at Red Bull to improve the RB21. The Dutchman has also pointed to the strong second stint in China as optimism that a good result can be taken this weekend.

Of course, everyone in Japan is looking forward to Yuki Tsunoda's debut at Red Bull.

After an intense week where Liam Lawson was sacrificed and dropped back to Racing Bulls, the Japanese driver makes his debut for the parent team in front of his home crowd. This will undoubtedly create additional pressure, and the question is how Tsunoda will deal with it.

Naturally, his performance in Suzuka will be compared to Lawson's. It would be embarrassing for Red Bull if Lawson were to finish ahead of Tsunoda.

Ferrari needs revenge

After a double disqualification in China, Ferrari also has some ground to make up. In a year where the Italian squad has been seen as McLaren's main challenger, Ferrari has largely disappointed - despite Hamilton's sprint victory in Shanghai. An improved performance is required in Japan, that much is clear.

Toto Wolff is absent in Suzuka, but from a distance, the team principal of Mercedes will be hoping for a repeat of the first two races in 2025. George Russell has reached the podium twice, showing that there is performance in the W16. Could he be the one to challenge McLaren?

With so many storylines, the Japanese Grand Prix is particularly intriguing even if McLaren is the overwhelming favourite.