Verstappen the favourite in Belgium, but who finishes behind Max?

Who will finish behind Verstappen?

Verstappen was already the strongest man at Spa-Francorchamps on Friday, and on Saturday, no one was able to stop him. Oscar Piastri made a good attempt with an impressive Sprint Shootout and undercut strategy on intermediates but to no avail. Verstappen was simply too fast in his RB19, and Sunday is expected to be no different. Verstappen starts from P6 but overwhelmingly has the best pace.

Normally, Sergio Perez should be able to secure at least second place from P2. The Mexican had a poorer performance on Saturday before suffering damage in a duel with Lewis Hamilton, but with the RB19, you should at least finish second in the race. Still, in the changing conditions at Spa, it will never be an easy task for Verstappen's teammate, who always visibly struggles there.

Red Bull Racing's challengers

Indeed, there are challengers, starting with the man who will start from pole: Charles Leclerc. The Monegasque finished fifth on Saturday and had a fairly stable pace on intermediates. Ferrari especially has an advantage on the straights. The Italian car does not have a rear wing like Red Bull Racing, so its top speed is much higher. Leclerc reached 309.8 km/h at the Speed Trap in the race, compared to Perez's 300.6 km/h and Verstappen's 301.9 km/h. Verstappen goes too fast on a lap to give Leclerc a chance on the straight, but Perez does not always get those laps out of his car. In that case, Leclerc can strike.

Lewis Hamilton is off to an even more confident start. On Saturday, Hamilton fell back due to the time penalty after the duel with Perez, but the pace was very good. On average, Hamilton was about two to three-tenths faster than Leclerc after also being the better driver in qualifying on Friday. Saturday, during Sprint Shootout things went wrong due to a close call with his teammate.

Hamilton will therefore start Sunday with a lot of confidence but will have to pass Perez and Leclerc cleanly. For that, Hamilton does have access to good top speed. Hamilton clocked the highest top speed in the Speed Trap of 310.6 km/h on Saturday, helped by Pierre Gasly's slipstream though.

Is Piastri a contender for the podium?

Oscar Piastri starts from P5 and, given Saturday, is obviously one of the contenders to finish on the podium. The Australian had the best pace after Verstappen on Saturday and was quite a bit faster than Leclerc and Hamilton in a number of laps. Yet Verstappen already noticed how quickly Piastri was starting to slip. Leclerc and Russell also commented on this after the race. The McLaren is burning up its tyres. That becomes a problem with a longer race.

At McLaren, they also made no secret afterwards that the rear wing taken away might cause a bit too much drag at Spa. Piastri, although without a slipstream, only achieved a speed of 299.4 km/h at the Speed Trap. Ten kilometres per hour slower than Leclerc and Hamilton. An undercut is obvious with the MCL60's strong pace, but then just manage to keep the tyres in one piece until the end of the race.

Lando Norris, Carlos Sainz and George Russell with the same car as their teammate, could of course, surprise with a good strategy or some luck, but purely based on their pace there is no reason to expect them on the podium. Russell, Sainz and Norris have been the inferior within their team all this weekend and given that the setup cannot be changed, it is very much to be doubted whether that will change on Sunday.

According to Weather.com, there will be showers in Spa from 15:00 local time. Right as the GP begins. The chance of rain is above 40 per cent during the race. The Belgian Grand Prix starts at 14:00 BST time and can be followed with GPblog's liveblog. In addition, follow the website for the very latest F1 news.