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What does Verstappen's Spanish GP victory mean for the championship?
- Nicole Mulder
Historically, the Spanish Grand Prix has proved particularly representative of the rest of the Formula 1 season. The winner of the race at the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya has often won the championship that same year. Statistically, what does Max Verstappen's victory mean for his chances of a fourth world title?
The winner of the Spanish GP statistically wins F1 championship
In the last 10 years, the winner of the Spanish GP has also won the championship on seven occasions. Only in 2015, 2016 and 2021 was this not the case. In 2015, Nico Rosberg won the race, but his teammate Lewis Hamilton became the world champion. The following year, it was Verstappen who immediately won in his first F1 race for Red Bull Racing thanks to the infamous first-lap crash between both Mercedes drivers. That year, Rosberg won the championship. In 2021, Hamilton won the race in Spain, but the world title went Verstappen's way.
In all other cases in the past 10 years, the winner of the Spanish GP also won the championship. In 2014 and from 2017 to 2020, it was Hamilton. In 2022 and 2023, Verstappen won both the race at the Circuit de Barcelona Catalunya and the world drivers' title.
Looking further back in history, a similar trend can be seen. Since the Spanish GP has been held in Barcelona, the winner of that race has also taken the championship in just under 60 per cent of cases that year.
Championship victory in 2024 is not yet a certainty for Verstappen
If the Spanish GP proves so representative again this year, Carlos Sainz, among others, has already warned that it doesn't have to be the case. It remains to be seen what the rest of the season will look like. Verstappen won the race, but Lando Norris was still faster throughout. Therefore, there is no sign of the supremacy we saw in the previous two years at Red Bull Racing at the moment. The Dutchman currently holds a 69-point lead over his closest competitor, Norris.
What is clear for now is the fact that McLaren can now match Red Bull, although the Woking-based team is still slightly short of top speed. Moreover, Ferrari and Mercedes could also increasingly enter the fray. One thing is certain: If Verstappen wants to win both the Spanish Grand Prix and the championship this year, the Dutchman, and his team, will have to keep working hard for it.