Red Bull volcano erupting?: How long will Horner survive as team boss?

It is likely that no one doubts that, without Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing has a big problem and is likely to compete only in Formula 1's midfield. Yet the team is not doing all it can to fully please the four-time world champion, as evidenced by the decision to send away Lawson and replace him with Tsunoda - a change that Verstappen does not agree with.

What comes next is easy to predict: When Horner soon explains at Suzuka why Lawson was replaced, the reasons will focus on the data, the New Zealander's shaky confidence and Yuki Tsunoda's good performance at Racing Bulls. Red Bull's PR team must already be setting the storyline.

Would Horner take responsibility?

It would be a big surprise if the team boss also openly admitted that he had made a mistake in promoting Lawson to the main team in the first place, and that the real problem is the RB21's handling and quality - Lawson is an easy victim to divert attention from that.

Horner is a survivor. He hasn't led Red Bull Racing for more than 20 years for no reason: He has a knack of always staying out of harm's way in the team's difficult situations. Even with the internal investigation triggered by Red Bull GmbH following allegations of inappropriate behaviour last year, Horner emerged in position.

But he doesn' seem to care about criticism, either externally or internally. That Adrian Newey left Red Bull partly because of the turmoil within the team is an open secret. Just as Jos Verstappen has also been highly critical of the team boss in the past, with whom he maintains a difficult relationship - although admittedly, it seems in recent months that some kind of truce has taken place. 

Irritation at Verstappen

Still, the tribal struggle is by no means over, and this is evident again after Lawson's resignation. So instead of looking inwards, a scapegoat has been found in Lawson, much to Verstappen's irritation.

How long can Horner and Red Bull continue like this? At some point, you would think it should end and if Horner leaves Red Bull at any point, nobody in Verstappen's camp at least will mourn that, having backed Lawson and not the hierarchy's decision.