George Russell heading towards a ‘do or die’ period at Mercedes

George Russell is one of the best drivers of his generation, but he so desperately needs a career-defining moment sooner rather than later. In fact, the 2024 season could well be a ‘do or die’ period at Mercedes. He has the talent and ability to be at a top team, but is he the driver who will guide Mercedes to future World Championships?

Scroll back a few years, and the question was: will it be Charles Leclerc, Max Verstappen, George Russell or even Lando Norris who takes over from Lewis Hamilton as the sport’s flag bearer? Verstappen, equipped with the strongest car on the grid, has taken that mantra with both hands. The question has shifted slightly, but the same background meaning applies. It’s now who, from that generation and perhaps even a younger set of drivers, including Oscar Piastri, will challenge Max Verstappen when they have a car at their disposal?

And there’s even a sub-question to the above point. While Mercedes, Ferrari and McLaren try to make the next development steps and close the gap, they need to know their preferred driver. Leclerc isn’t clearly a cut above Carlos Sainz, and Lando Norris seems very close to Oscar Piastri. Russell, alongside Lewis Hamilton, remains in a unique situation.

A world championship-winning team needs a star driver combined with a wingman. We saw it when Mercedes were dominant with Valtteri Bottas and Hamilton. When Ferrari were dominant with Michael Schumacher and Rubens Barrichello. And now Red Bull are dominant with Verstappen and Sergio Perez. That’s a sustainable, proven winning formula. You don’t have a situation where egos are clashing, internal politics occur, and points start being taken off each other.

Russell’s unique situation

The F1 drivers will play a game of musical chairs in 2024, going into 2025. But Russell is in a very unique situation. He is secure until the end of 2025, and Toto Wolff recently suggested there was no reason why his contract extension wasn’t for a decade.

Mercedes clearly want him, and he’s clearly good enough to be at a top factory team. Russell’s situation is even more unique. He currently sits alongside Lewis Hamilton, who is also secure until the end of 2025. By which time, Hamilton will be heading into his 40s. Perhaps if Mercedes can impress Hamilton enough with their 2026 engine, he extends one more year to try and get the eighth title (presuming he doesn’t win one in the meantime). But his duration in F1 is becoming increasingly unlikely beyond that.

Mercedes will then need a new ‘leader’. A flag-bearer who can carry the team forward. As mentioned before, the most successful Formula 1 teams have a top driver and a ‘wingman’. The upcoming period will determine which side of the fence Russell falls at Mercedes. Will he be the one to take the team forward? Or will he be pushed into the wingman role as Mercedes bring in another driver? Mercedes will want the former. Russell will obviously want the former. The Brit now needs to go out and show it before Mercedes apply brainpower to the upcoming driver market.

Russell needs a ‘Verstappen moment’

Russell has performed well in 2023 but remains prone to costly mistakes. Without thinking too hard, Monaco and Singapore spring to mind as obvious frontrunners. Another big error occurred in the Canadian Grand Prix. As such, Russell is significantly behind Hamilton in the World Championship. While Hamilton is fighting for P2, Russell is down in P8. Hamilton has been far from perfect, but he has managed to score at every Grand Prix weekend. Russell has four weekends without points.

In the 2018 Monaco Grand Prix, Verstappen crashed in FP3 and couldn’t qualify as a result. On Sunday, he had to watch his then-teammate Daniel Ricciardo claim victory. From the following weekend onwards, Verstappen was sharper. An upshift occurred. Those, as they were branded, ‘immature mistakes’ were cut out. It was a big stepping stone in his career and put him in good stead for 2021, even if it was three years later.

Three years sounds familiar: that will be 2026 when the new engine regulations come into play. That could be Russell’s first real shot. The coming period is so important for Russell’s progression as a Formula 1 driver. He moves closer to a ‘do or die’ career-defining moment with every mistake.