McLaren with Mercedes engines: What are their prospects for 2021?

This season McLaren have worked their way up to provisionally third team in the constructors' championship. Next season there will be a Mercedes engine in the back of the McLaren. But how much profit will they actually make with this?

In most qualifying sessions this year the Racing Point cars were at least as fast and often a few tenths faster than McLaren. However, through constant performance and some opportunistic actions of the drivers, McLaren have built up a lead.

According to an analysis made by Auto Motor und Sport last summer, Mercedes have 25hp more than Renault this season. This puts Renault in second place in the ranking of the most powerful engines. If McLaren now had Ferrari engines, the step forward in 2021 would have been a lot bigger. The Italians are 50 hp short.

For the sake of convenience, assuming that the aerodynamic differences between the teams remain the same for the coming year, how much profit will McLaren make next season? In the past, research into the average time gain per horsepower has shown that F1 teams go a little less than 0.2 seconds faster per lap for every extra 10hp.

In the case of McLaren they will therefore win about four tenths per lap. That's enough to stand in front of Racing Point on most racetracks and be on a level playing field on those tracks where Racing Point is traditionally strong.

On most circuits, however, that's not enough to stay ahead of Max Verstappen's Red Bull. Although the Dutchman can then afford fewer mistakes. Mercedes remain out of reach. Supplying engines to McLaren is therefore a relatively safe choice for them.