At least one F1 driver disappears: who to fear and who not?

At the start of the season, all 20 drivers started at the same teams where they had finished 2023. That does not happen often in Formula 1 history. For the '25 season, though, a musical chairs dance is imminent. Moreover, after the announcement that Oliver Bearman will drive at Haas F1, it is certain that one of the current drivers will disappear from Formula 1 anyway. Who exactly? We list the chances of all current F1 drivers of a forced retirement.

Bearman has thus been confirmed for '25, but chances are it will not stop at that one newcomer. Andrea Kimi Antonelli, his current teammate at Prema's F2 team, is the leading candidate to succeed Lewis Hamilton at Mercedes. In addition, Jack Doohan is in the picture to succeed Esteban Ocon at Alpine. Mick Schumacher is also mentioned at the French team. Finally, Visa Cash App RB sees Liam Lawson as a candidate to become Yuki Tsunoda's teammate. So even four current drivers may well have to look for a seat in another racing class.

It seems a certainty that Sargeant will be out of Formula 1 in '25. After two mediocre years at Williams - where he is all but gone - no one elsewhere on the grid seems to be waiting for the American either. An escape route may come if Sargeant's personal sponsors decide to pull out the purse strings again and buy Sargeant in somewhere. However, that is not an obvious scenario. Rather, Sargeant seems to be heading towards IndyCar.

Zhou is by no means making a strong impression at Sauber (now Stake F1 and from '26 Audi) this year. For now, the Chinese has his hopes pinned on a seat at Alpine, where, as a Chinese and with its Chinese sponsors, he could be a great marketing vehicle. Surely, it rather looks like the French are attracting someone who can seriously accelerate. Only a miracle could keep Zhou in Formula 1 in that case, as his current team would prefer to get rid of him.

Daniel Ricciardo is one of the best-known faces in Formula 1, but for how long? In recent weeks, the Australian has been showing signs of improvement. However, is that enough for Red Bull to keep him at VCARB for another year? Helmut Marko has already expressed a desire to give Liam Laswon a chance, in which case Ricciardo is the child of the bill. A week ago, Ricciardo told GPblog he had no options elsewhere, but in recent days there have been rumours that Williams is considering him. Exciting times, then, for Ricciardo!

Kevin Magnussen already retired (of necessity) from Formula 1 once, after Haas F1 did not renew his contract. After a year, the American team brought him back, but it seems that his tenure will really come to an end after this year. Magnussen is structurally trounced by teammate Nico Hulkenberg and Esteban Ocon is eager to become the 31-year-old Dane's replacement. If it becomes a 'no' from Haas, Magnussen's F1 career is likely to be over.

Officially, it was a mutually agreed decision. Still, everyone will realise that Ocon is being thanked by Alpine for services rendered, after his many clashes with teammate Pierre Gasly. By the way, no one doubts Ocon's speed, which makes at least Haas have him at the top of their wish list. Audi is also seriously considering Ocon. So the Frenchman will probably do well in Formula 1.

His current team Sauber (soon to be Audi) did not initially have him on the list, but in Switzerland, they are struggling to find a colleague of Hulkenberg's. That could just be good news for Bottas, who is keen to stay active in F1. Should Audi still choose someone else, Williams would also be an option. So there is a real chance Bottas could be back in the premier class in '25.

The man who has the entire driver market in a hold: no longer under contract with Ferrari, but all teams with a seat seem interested in him. Sainz will drive in Formula 1 in 2025, but he will have to choose which team he wants to do so for.

This article was written in collaboration with Ben Stevens.