Perez stats: how the hefty decline gives Red Bull a dilemma

F1 qualifying duel with Verstappen

2021

Duel 1-21

Difference +0.433s

2022

Duel 4-18

Difference +0.309s

2023

Duel 1-17

Difference +0.392s

When Sergio Perez stepped in at Red Bull Racing in 2021, nobody expected miracles. It is the last car of that generation, a car that Verstappen could dream of and moulded entirely to himself. Perez also needed to get used to a new team and be able to fight for victory on a weekly basis for the first time in his career.

The final race in Abu Dhabi was crucial for the Mexican's career. It gave him a boost, which helped in 2022. Once again, Verstappen was the clear leader, but slowly Perez was closing in. In both the duel and the average difference per qualifying, Perez narrowed the gap.

In 2023, Perez seemed to have followed that line. In the first four races, Perez was very close, but then he dipped. The 33-year-old driver then suddenly spoke about a title battle, putting quite a bit of pressure on himself. He couldn't withstand the pressure. Perez kept stringing together mistake after mistake and saw Verstappen move further and further away with more confidence. Thus, Perez found himself back to square one in terms of numbers.

Grand Prix duel against Verstappen

2021

Duel 0-16

Difference 205.5 points

2022

Duel 3-15

Difference 149 points

2023

Duel 2-17

Difference 251 points

Perez was always praised for his racecraft. For instance, he managed to get unique performances out of Force India and Sauber that were thought impossible. In qualifying, the Mexican often struggled a bit more. 

Here too, a clear step can be seen from 2021 to 2022. Perez finished ahead of Verstappen a couple of times in 2022 and made sure the difference in points was much smaller. With two wins in the first four races, Perez started 2023 well but then, like his qualifying results, completely collapsed.

In the 15 races that followed, Perez has been beaten by his teammate every weekend. This has widened the points gap compared to previous years. Even in his first year for Red Bull, the difference was not that big.

Why Red Bull wants to get rid of Perez

Perez still has a contract until 2024, but the pressure on him has increased considerably. Looking at the results, this is not surprising. You hardly ever see a qualifying difference of more than three-tenths among top teams. In the last three years, only Nicholas Latifi (2021 and 2022), Yuki Tsunoda (2021), Nikita Mazepin, Guanyu Zhou (2022), Daniel Ricciardo(McLaren, 2021), Lance Stroll (2023) and Logan Sargeant (2023) lost the qualifying duel with a difference of more than three tenths. Not exactly the names you want to see a driver from a top team in.

That makes it all the more remarkable that Daniel Ricciardo is now back in the running for a seat at Red Bull Racing. He was a good driver alongside Verstappen, but at McLaren, he was beaten by Lando Norris for two years. Won't the same thing happen to him if he now steps in alongside Max Verstappen again?

However, being Verstappen's teammate is proving to be no easy task. No matter how badly Perez is doing now, he still puts up better numbers than Pierre Gasly and Alexander Albon. Those two were younger and less experienced than Perez when given the chance but were also beaten by a greater distance. In 2020, for instance, Albon was 0.597s slower than Verstappen on average.

It shows Red Bull's dilemma. On the one hand, they see a clear decline from Perez and will be keen to close that gap towards Verstappen. On the other hand, they know Perez is Verstappen's best teammate since Ricciardo. Bringing Ricciardo back does not guarantee anything, just as bringing back Albon and Carlos Sainz does not guarantee anything for the future. Fernando Alonso might be the best driver in terms of name and talent to get, but the Spaniard provides one negative guarantee: chaos. For fans, it's a spectacle, for Red Bull's management headaches.