Analysis | Does Hamilton have a tyre advantage over Verstappen?

Oscar Piastri won the sprint race in Qatar, ending Red Bull Racing's winning streak in the 2023 Sprints. Max Verstappen crossed the finish line in second place, securing his third Formula 1 world title. However, there was also a whole other issue at play: the tyres. Problems with the Pirelli tyres surfaced on Saturday, potentially turning the race upside down strategically.

It was an unusual Saturday at the Losail International Circuit. The FIA introduced an extra 10-minute free practice session before the Sprint Shootout after changes were made to turns 12 and 13. This was due to the cracks in the Pirelli tyres caused by those corners.

As Pirelli boss Mario Isola said, the kerbs themselves were not the cause; it was down to the speed and the amount of times the drivers ran over them. They concluded that this meant the tyres only lasted about 20 laps. After the end of the sprint race, the extent to which the adjustments helped was due to be analysed, and a decision was made on whether further measures were needed.

FIA takes drastic measure

That decision has now been taken by the FIA: F1 drivers will not be allowed to run more than 18 laps on the same set of tyres, effectively meaning three mandatory pit stops. This will make the Qatar Grand Prix look very different from normal in terms of strategy. With three mandatory pit stops, it will be extra relevant who has how many sets of tyres left. An overview of this can be seen in the image below.

Sergio Perez, Carlos Sainz and Lewis Hamilton are among the drivers who still have a new set of softs at their disposal. As shown in the sprint race, this compound will not be a favourite for Sunday's race. The best performance is clearly gone after about 10 laps (including safety car periods).

All drivers still have at least one new set of hard tyres and, except Nico Hulkenberg, one new set of medium tyres. In addition, many drivers still have two or three sets of used mediums.

Looking at the head of the field, Verstappen still has one new set of hards, as well as one new set and two used sets of mediums. Of the softs, the Dutchman has no new sets left. George Russell, who is next to Verstappen on the front row, has one extra set of used mediums left. Starting from P3, Lewis Hamilton has one set of new softs left. Fernando Alonso is behind the Mercedes, who, like his rivals, has another new set of hards and mediums. In addition, the Aston Martin driver still has three sets of used mediums left. Exactly the same goes for Charles Leclerc.

Will Mercedes split strategies again?

What opportunities does this present for the race? Given Russell's strong start in the sprint race, Mercedes could easily opt to split strategies again and let Hamilton start on mediums or even softs in order to attack Verstappen's leading position. Should he succeed, however, it remains to be seen whether Mercedes can keep up with the pace of Verstappen's RB19 in the long run.