Why Verstappen and Mercedes are becoming an increasingly unlikely scenario

The statement was made by James Vowles, during a media session that GPblog attended. Vowles has previously worked for Mercedes and was closely involved in Mercedes' training program, which delivered George Russell and Andrea Kimi Antonelli to F1, aiming to eventually have a world champion within their own ranks.

In Bahrain, GPblog spoke exclusively with the head of the Mercedes program, Gwen Lagrue, who elaborated on the role of the program and its ultimate goal. How Russell and Antonelli are still being guided to become better and better, so that Mercedes eventually has two drivers who can become world champions.

However, it's no secret that Toto Wolff would have liked to have Max Verstappen. In 2024, Wolff was very open about it; by 2025, he's focusing a bit more on his own drivers. However, both Russell and Antonelli, who are managed by Mercedes, have expiring contracts, theoretically leaving room for Verstappen.

Still, the question remains whether a seat next to Antonelli, who would logically remain, is what Max should want. Antonelli is very fast and is seen as the greatest talent of his generation. Max is a superstar, but then he would be joining a new team that is not entirely built around him as is the case at Red Bull Racing.

Mercedes is considered a favorite for 2026 because of the advantage their engine is rumoured to have, but 2024 and 2025 have also proven that a customer team like McLaren can beat a factory team. So, it's not just about the engine, but also about the technical picture.

That's why Aston Martin is in the conversation as well. Financially, one of the powerhouses in Formula 1 since the takeover by Lawrence Stroll and the investments from Aramco. With this financial muscle, Aston Martin has also gone all out with a brand new factory and wind tunnel that rivals envy.

Adding to that, Aston Martin has brought in one heavyweight after another. Andy Cowell as team principal, Adrian Newey as technical head, and then Enrico Cardile. So, the team is not lacking in knowledge, although current track performances might raise doubts.

Aston Martin's approach fits much better with Verstappen. With the recruitment of Sebastian Vettel and Fernando Alonso, Lawrence Stroll has shown the type of driver he is looking for: a world champion and, above all, a figurehead who can carry the team. Just like all the other high-profile team members he's brought on board. Verstappen fits that profile.

The big question is whom Max would team up with. Fernando Alonso has a contract for 2026 and revealed at the press conference that he sees a slim chance of Verstappen becoming his teammate. Lance Stroll is the son of the big boss. Would he, even if just for a year, be sidelined for Verstappen?

At the press conference in Saudi Arabia, Cowell was asked about the potential arrival of Verstappen. The door was clearly left open by the Aston Martin team principal. Cowell avoided the real question, namely whether Max would drive for Aston Martin next year, by talking about his current drivers. However, he did not confirm that Lance Stroll and Fernando Alonso would drive for Aston Martin in 2026.

Thus, Cowell follows the line of Toto Wolff. Both are smart enough to keep the door open for Max Verstappen. If you can bring in a four-time world champion, undoubtedly the best driver of the moment, then you always want to keep that option open.