Ferrari reports as serious challenger to Red Bull and Verstappen

Red Bull Racing seems to have a real challenger in Ferrari in Austria. The Italian racetrack was secretly very good in Canada and, after some updates, also comes out on top in Spielberg. Is the leak over at Frederic Vasseur's team?

Few people can understand what went wrong with Ferrari this season. In 2022, the team won a number of races and, outside of personal mistakes by drivers or mistakes by people at the pit wall, was able to really challenge Red Bull Racing.

In 2023, nothing came of that. One-lap speed was less competitive and in the races Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz fell back even faster. Leclerc dropped out in Bahrain due to an engine problem and seemed to suffer some motivation problems afterwards. Silly mistakes in Australia (race), Azerbaijan (Sprint Shootout), Miami (FP2 and qualifying) and Monaco (qualifying) cost him expensive points, but the Monegasque has now also realised that the tide is turning since Canada.

Indeed, the updates Ferrari is bringing seem to be working, and the competition is noticing that too. Helmut Marko, for instance, points to the Italian stable as the fastest in the race at Circuit Gilles Villeneuve. It seems a bit strange that the number four and five of that race are designated as fastest, but given the starting position of those two and the fact that they made a one-stop strategy work, it shows what would have been possible had Sainz and Leclerc started higher up on the grid.

Ferrari itself seems to realise it too and is shifting gears. From 1 July 2023, it will have more wind tunnel time at its disposal, which it intends to make full use of to make something more of the F1 season. So in Austria, Ferrari will arrive early with two updates. Leclerc thanks his team after qualifying for getting this done so quickly.

Of course, Ferrari has yet to show it in the race, but nothing in the qualifying data shows any weakness from the SF-23. So far, the RB19 has been fastest on the straight at every track. Because that top speed is achieved more easily, Verstappen has to ask less of his tyres when going up the straights or when braking. As a result, Verstappen has had an advantage in most races. That does not seem to be the case on the Red Bull Ring.

In terms of top speed, Verstappen is barely faster than both Ferraris. In the Speed Trap, Verstappen gets to 320.7 km/h, as fast as Sainz. Leclerc achieves 318.6 km/h as top speed there and clearly drives with a bit more downforce. Still, the difference is not as great as it has been at other circuits.

Indeed, if we put the laps side by side, it is noticeable that Verstappen wins his time on entering and exiting the corners. Verstappen thus wins on braking and acceleration. The difference between the two drivers is minimal, but the fact that this is precisely where Verstappen demands more from his tyres is remarkable. Indeed, a year ago Verstappen lost the race in Spielberg once because his tyres suffered too much wear.

The drivers are also hardly distinguishable from each other in sector times. Verstappen is fastest in the first and third sectors, Leclerc in the second. The difference in each sector is no more than a tenth, indicating that the cars are not much apart. The fact that the times are so similar makes the big difference between Ferrari's revival in Baku and here in Austria. In Baku, Ferrari used up its tyres to drive that lap time, in Styria that does not seem to be the case.

The race will reveal whether Ferrari really is a rival to Red Bull Racing and, should that be the case, Silverstone will have to prove whether it is not a one-off flare-up in colder conditions. Indeed, as in Canada, Austria is once again relatively cold. Annoying for Red Bull which struggles to warm up its tyres, an advantage for Ferrari which normally just burns through its tyres.

Whether Ferrari benefits from the colder conditions or not, the fact that another team is finally so close to Verstappen's Red Bull is a positive sign for the championship. The Dutchman has a huge lead, but some battle for wins would make the weekends a lot more interesting.