Why doubts about Liam Lawson have cost Ricciardo a seat at VCARB

Visa Cash App RB has dismissed Daniel Ricciardo with immediate effect and is replacing him with Liam Lawson. The New Zealander will replace the eight-time Grand Prix winner from the United States Grand Prix, prompted by Ricciardo's lagging performance. However, uncertainty about how good Lawson is or is not also played into Red Bull's decision to give the 22-year-old driver a chance.

In retrospect, it can be concluded that Ricciardo's return to Formula 1—after first taking a role outside the spotlight at Red Bull—did not turn out as both team and driver had hoped. Ricciardo managed to beat his teammate Yuki Tsunoda only rarely. And Tsunoda is not a driver Red Bull has on their list to develop into Max Verstappen's teammate at Red Bull Racing.

Even when Sergio Perez was going through a difficult phase, team boss Christian Horner and advisor Helmut Marko did not decide to sideline the Mexican and give Ricciardo his seat at Red Bull Racing. It must have been painful for Ricciardo, who had always had (and expressed) the dream of eventually ending his career with the reigning constructors' champion. Instead, it ends after 257 Grands Prix, mid-season, at VCARB. But even Ricciardo must have realised: "Daniel's had a reasonable season, but it hasn't been a stellar year," to quote Horner.

But there was more behind the switch than Ricciardo's performance alone. Inside Red Bull, people are still not convinced that Liam Lawson is the right man to come out next season alongside Tsunoda at VCARB (or perhaps even to Verstappen at Red Bull Racing). Horner said in Singapore: "Now, the question is, how good is Liam? And sometimes, difficult decisions have to be made in order to get those answers."

It is no secret that Red Bull had an option on Lawson for 2025, but it expired in mid-September. If the New Zealander did not then have a spot in one of the Red Bull teams (in prospect), he was free to go wherever he wanted. By putting Lawson in the car for the last six Grand Prix weekends, Red Bull can once again see the youngster at work - after a cameo in 2023. If Lawson manages to convince, he will surely get a seat in 2024.

If Lawson fails to demonstrate that a longer stay in Formula 1 is justified, Red Bull may decide after Abu Dhabi not to sign him for 2025 after all. In that case, with Isack Hadjar - currently racing successfully in Formula 2 - the Austrian team has an alternative within their ranks. And if that would not be satisfactory either, there is probably always Daniel Ricciardo...