Straight off the back of the very entertaining American Grand Prix last weekend, the F1 circus travels to its next destination; the Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez, where the title could be decided again at the Mexican Grand Prix - time for a preview!
Flashback
Last year's race had very similar stake to this year's edition. Sebastian Vettel needed an emphatic win to keep his title hopes alive and Lewis Hamilton basically had to finish near the podium to secure his fourth championship.
The race started with Vettel on pole, followed by Max Verstappen's Red Bull and Hamilton's Mercedes in third place. Straight away at the first corner, Verstappen made a move stick to move up to first, and Hamilton took advantage to sneak past Vettel as well. However, Vettel clipped the Brit's right rear tyre with his front wing as he went past, giving Hamilton a puncture.
"Did he hit me deliberately?" "Not sure Lewis."
That's what Hamilton asked on team radio as he limped back to the pitlane, although Vettel needed a front wing as well, leaving him not much better off.
The race featured a host of mechanical failures, as the Renault engines of Daniel Ricciardo, Nico Hülkenberg and Brendon Hartley all failed, with the last two even having flames coming out of the car. The same happened to Marcus Ericsson's Ferrari-powered Sauber.
After some scrapping with Fernando Alonso, Hamilton managed to finish ninth, and as Vettel only managed P4, it was enough for the Brit to seal his world championship, as Max Verstappen won his third race as an F1 driver.
Expectations
Hamilton's current championship-lead is 70 points with three races to go, meaning that he will be crowned champion if he scores six more points in total if Vettel wins all three races (which is not a given at all). So, if Vettel wins, P7 would be enough for Hamilton to mathematically seal the championship. If Vettel doesn't win, it's over as well. It's fair to expect Hamilton to finish at least sixth (which would be last place amongst the Big Three teams), so something would have to go really wrong for him to mess it up. He finished ninth last year though because of the early puncture, so who knows...
We do expect Red Bull and Ferrari to come out firing on all cylinders. The Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez is quite a downforce-heavy track, favouring the Red Bulls, and Ferrari have also shown that they are very comfortable around bendy tracks. Expect it to be close at the front this weekend!
Predictions
Much like last year's edition, we think Max Verstappen is due for another win. The Dutchman has been frankly outstanding for the last months, almost winning the American Grand Prix last week after starting from 18th place, and he's been showing the maturity and consistency that many people desired from him at an earlier age. Combine his red-hot form and the fact that the track suits the RB14, and we think that this weekend could be the perfect cocktail for a win for the 21-year-old.
That would mean that Hamilton seals the championship. As previously stated, Vettel needs a win to stay alive, but his many mistakes in previous races have shown that the German is in a funk at the moment. It's too little too late, and unless Lance Stroll torpedoes Hamilton in the next three races, the Brit will comfortably drive to his fifth drivers' championship this weekend.
Mercedes' strategy and performance left much to be desired last weekend, but Hamilton will be good for a P7-finish at least. We expect him to play it a bit safe and qualify somewhere around third, after which he will drive to a podium finish to claim his title.
Top 5 predictions
1. Max Verstappen (RBR)
2. Sebastian Vettel (FER)
3. Lewis Hamilton (MER)
4. Daniel Ricciardo (RBR)
5. Valtteri Bottas (MER)